- We raise our target price for PHR by 13% to VND55,000/share but downgrade our rating to OUTPERFORM from BUY as the stock’s price has increased by 20% over the last five months. 

- Our higher target price is mainly due to (1) adding the four Tan Dinh industrial clusters (300 ha of total site area in Bac Tan Uyen District, Binh Duong Province) into our valuation and (2) our higher valuation for the Nam Tan Uyen JSC (NTC — a 33%-owned affiliate of PHR) due to our higher ASP and accelerated sales assumptions for the Nam Tan Uyen 2 Expansion IP (NTU3 IP).

- We broadly maintain our 2023F NPAT-MI forecast of VND557bn (USD24mn; -37% YoY) as a result of lower YoY compensation income from VSIP III. 

- We lower our 2024F NPAT-MI forecast by 2% to VND501bn (USD21mn; -10% vs 2023F) mainly due to lower net income from affiliates as we anticipate a lower percentage of sales from the NTU3 IP will be recognized as one-off revenue. Meanwhile, we increase our 2025F NPAT-MI forecast by 15% to VND826bn (USD35mn; +65% vs 2024F) due to adding the Tan Dinh industrial clusters and expecting for their sales to launch and handovers to start in 2025F.

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