On February 27, NVL hosted an online analyst meeting to provide updates on the company’s restructuring, project development progress, and 2025G guidance. We attended the meeting and our key takeaways are as follows:    

2025G guidance: 

• Net revenue from property handovers: VND21tn (USD836mn; +153% YoY). 

• NPAT: VND1.4tn (USD58mn; vs 2024 loss of VND4.3tn/USD172mn).  

• Handover target: In 2025G, NVL expects to hand over 3,000 units, with NovaWorld Phan Thiet contributing 31%, Aqua City 27%, NovaWorld Ho Tram 19%, and HCMC projects 23%. The company targets 12,500 units in 2026 and 6,900 units in 2027. Funding for construction will primarily come from bank credit disbursements and cash collection from presold units. 

• New presales: Expected launches of two new projects in HCMC, including Park Avenue and Palm City (high-rise). Management expects to obtain construction permits for these two projects in March and June 2025, with presale launches planned for Q2 and Q3 2025G, respectively. 

Legal status of key projects: Management expects to obtain the following legal approvals by Q2 2025G: 

• Aqua City: Revised 1/500 detailed planning. 

• NovaWorld Phan Thiet: One-time land use fee payment and construction permit for some subdivisions. 

• NovaWorld Ho Tram: Complete legal approvals for sub-projects Binh Chau Onsen, Happy Beach, and Long Island to complete legal approvals. 

Update for Lakeview City and Water Bay projects (HCMC): These two projects are listed in the Resolution 170/2024 (effective from April 1, 2025) on special mechanisms to resolve difficulties regarding projects in inspection and court conclusions in HCMC, Da Nang, and Khanh Hoa Province. NVL is waiting for further detailed guidance to resolve the projects’ legal issues. Specifically for Lakeview City, the resolution provides guidance on calculating the land use rights fee (LURF) of this project, in which the previously determined LURF of over VND5.1tn (USD203mn) by the HCMC Tax Department could be subject to review, potentially allowing NVL to revert some of the provision recorded by auditors in its H1 2024 audited financial statements. The 2025G NPAT guidance does not yet factor in this potential provision reversal. 

Update on debt restructuring: As of end-2024, NVL’s total debt balance was VND61tn (USD2.4bn), a 5% increase vs end-2023, mainly due to new bank loan disbursement for construction funding. Total debts set to mature within 12 months were VND36tn (USD1.4bn), in which NVL has reached refinancing plans for all domestic bank debts; while for international debts and retail domestic bonds, some refinancing agreements have been reached, while others are under ongoing negotiations for maturity extensions from 2025 to 2026-2027. 

Cash collection timeline: Per management, the remaining cash to collect (based on total presold units) is around VND98tn (USD3.8bn; with Aqua City accounting for 64%). Management expects to collect VND13.7tn (USD537mn) in 2025G, the majority in 2026G, and the remaining in 2027G.  

In 2023-2024, the average presales were VND2.7tn/USD109mn p.a. vs VND83tn/USD3.3bn p.a. in the 2021-2022 period. At end-2024, NVL’s total unbilled bookings were VND224tn (USD8.8bn; down 7% YoY), of which Aqua City accounted for 48%, NovaWorld Phan Thiet 27%, NovaWorld Ho Tram 10%, and HCMC projects 15%. 

Our view: We have observed early legal progress at key projects and support from local banks in providing new loans for NVL to resume construction activities. We maintain our view that NVL’s fundamental progress, including debt restructuring, addressing legal and construction issues, and restoring homebuyer confidence, will require time to resolve. In 2025F, we expect NVL to continue focusing on (1) debt restructuring, including negotiations with bondholders to extend maturity/asset swaps, and (2) working on solving legal and construction issues step by step to deliver houses (presold units) to homebuyers.