- We lower our target price (TP) for NT2 by 7.5% to VND19,700/share and maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating. Our lower TP is due to our 9% lower aggregate 2024-2028F reported NPAT forecast, which outweighs the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to end-2025. 

- Our lower aggregate reported NPAT (respective changes of N.M.*/-35%/-40%/+7%/+9% for 2024-28F) is mainly due to our (1) 5.7% lower aggregate sales volume, driven by NT2’s guidance for lower-than-expected volume recovery, and (2) 14% on average lower sector CGM price forecasts for the 2024-2028F period (see our Thermal Power Sector Update, dated October 30, 2024) (*forecast of a net profit vs a net loss previously).

- We forecast 2025F reported NPAT-MI of VND329bn (+7x YoY), primarily driven by (1) 25% YoY sales volume growth, (2) a 3% higher price spread between ASP and gas input prices, and (3) a projected VND155bn FX loss compensation.

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