NT2 [BUY +31.3%] - 2026F NPAT to grow further on record high five-year volume

- We raise our target price (TP) for NT2 by 5.1% to VND28,600/share, mainly due to our 7% higher 2025-30F aggregate reported NPAT projection (respective changes of +10%/+10%/+6%/+5%/+5%/+5%).

- Our higher 2025-30F aggregate reported NPAT projection is mainly due to: (1) our projected 8.5% lower heat rate starting from 2026, (2) our 22%/8% higher sales volume projections for 2026/27F following the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT)’s 2026 strong mobilization plan for gas-fired power plants (+32% YoY) and industry players’ guidance for Nhon Trach 2 (NT2)’s potential volume of 4.6bn kWh in 2026, which outweigh (3) our projection of lower sector CGM prices by 7% on average and (4) a 4% higher gas price forecast in 2027.

- We forecast 2025 NPAT to grow 10x YoY with estimated Q4 NPAT of VND315bn (4.2x YoY).