NT2 [BUY +25.3%] - Surprisingly strong Qc boosts 2025F NPAT, soaring 6x YoY

- We raise our target price (TP) for NT2 by 14.1% to VND23,500/share, mainly due to our 19% higher aggregate 2025-29F reported NPAT-MI forecast.

- Our higher 2025-29F aggregate reported NPAT projection (respective changes of +112%/+9%/+21%/+11%/+11%) is due to our 2% higher ASP projection in 2025-29F, driven by (1) higher 2025F contracted volume ratio (Qc) (108% vs 80% previously), and (2) NT2’s higher CGM prices following stronger-than-expected H1 2025 results.

- We forecast NT2’s reported NPAT to bottom out in 2024 and surge 6x YoY to VND491bn, driven by (1) 19% YoY sales volume expansion and (2) surprisingly high Qc volume of 3.5bn kWh (implying a Qc ratio of 108%).