NT2 - 4x YoY sales volume growth drives NPAT turnaround, in line with our forecast

Q1 2025: Revenue of VND1,427bn (+5.5x YoY, 19% of full-year forecast); reported NPAT of VND36bn (vs a VND158bn loss in Q1 2024, 9% of full-year forecast); core NPAT of VND36bn (vs a VND215bn loss in Q1 2024, 16% of 2025F).

Sales volume jumped 4x YoY but completed 17% of our full-year forecast due to (1) Q1 usually being a low season, and (2) national gas-fired plants’ production volume plunged 24% YoY (due to hydropower production volume jumping 30% YoY, and weaker-than-expected demand growth of 5% YoY vs our 10% projection).
Substantial revenue growth was driven by (1) 4x YoY sales volume and (2) 40% YoY higher ASP (due to a 107% Qc ratio vs 1% in Q1 2024, amid the CGM price falling 17% YoY).
Core NPAT made a turnaround due to (1) the price spread between ASP and gas cost/kWh jumping to VND587/kWh from a loss of VND28/kWh in Q1 2024 due to a higher Qc ratio, and (2) sales growth.
No one-off income was recorded in Q1 vs our projected VND155bn of FX loss compensation and VND89bn of forest fees in 2025F.

Overall, we see insignificant changes to our 2025F reported NPAT (VND419bn, +5x YoY) and core NPAT (VND224bn, +9x YoY) due to our expectation of strong sales volume in Q2, pending a fuller review. We currently have an OUTPERFORM rating for NT2 with a target price of VND22,000/share.

NT2’s Q1 2025 results

VND bn	Q1 2024	Q1 2025	YoY (%)	% of 2025F
Sales volume (mn kWh)	152	588	288%	17%
Qc (mn kWh)	1	628	N.M.	23%
ASP (VND/kWh)	1,728	2,426	40%	110%
Gas price (USD/MMBTU)	9.3	9.5	2%	95%

Revenue	262	1,427	445%	19%
COGS	-487	-1,383	184%	19%
Gross profit	-225	44	-120%	12%
SG&A	-15	-19	27%	23%
Operating profit	-240	25	N.M.	9%
Financial income	19	31	62%	26%
Financial expense	-8	-14	73%	40%
Other income	70	0	-100%	0%
Profit before tax	-158	43	N.M.	9%
NPAT, reported	-158	36	N.M.	9%
NPAT, core	-215	36	N.M.	16%

Source: NT2, Vietcap