NT2 – 2024 NPAT beats forecast on high volume, slight upside to 2025F NPAT - Earnings Flash
  • 2025-02-03T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • 2024: Revenue was VND5,952bn (USD234mn, -7% YoY, 104% of our full-year forecast), with reported NPAT-MI of VND72bn (USD2.8mn, -85% YoY, 185% of our full-year forecast). 

  • Revenue declined 7% YoY due to (1) 6% YoY lower sales volume and (2) ASP ticked down 1% YoY (due to significant lower non-mobilized contracted volume Qc of 74 million kWh vs 467 million kWh in 2023). 

  • Reported NPAT-MI plunged 85% YoY mainly due to: 1) 33% YoY decrease in contracted volume, and 2) our estimated 6% YoY higher gas price (driven by 3% YoY higher FO prices and depleting cheap domestic gas sources), which outweighed VND70bn from revaluation of inventory for maintenance spare parts (vs none in 2023). 

  • Reported/core NPAT-MI beat our forecasts due to (1) outperforming sales volume, and (2) slightly lower COGS per kWh, potentially due to lower heat rate following higher production volume while gas prices were in line with our projections. 

  • Q4 2024: Revenue was VND1,792bn (USD71bn, +49% YoY) with reported NPAT-MI of VND64bn (USD2.5mn, -73% YoY). Revenue jumped 49% YoY mainly due to YoY doubled sales volume.  However, earnings plunged due to: 1) 27% YoY ASP plunge (due to zero non-mobilized Qc volume vs 365 million kWh in Q4 2023) and 2) an estimated 3% YoY higher gas price.  

  • We see slight upside potential to our 2025F NPAT (VND329bn, USD13mn, 5.5x YoY) due to potential higher-than-expected sales volume (as National System and Market Operator have preliminary plans to mobilize 3.5bn kWh from NT2), pending a fuller review. 

  • We currently have a MARKET PERFORM rating for NT2 with a target price of VND19,700/share. 

NT2’s 2024 results  

 VND bn 

Q4 2023 

Q4 2024 

YoY (%) 

2023 

2024 

YoY (%) 

% of 2024F 

Sales volume (mn kWh) 

395 

808 

104% 

2,889 

2,729 

-6% 

105% 

Qc (mn kWh) 

760 

658 

-13% 

3,321 

2,221 

-33% 

105% 

ASP (VND/kWh) 

3,037 

2,219 

-27% 

2,210 

2,181 

-1% 

99% 

Gas price (USD/MMBTU) 

9.1 

9.4 

3% 

9.0 

9.5 

6% 

99% 

Revenue 

1,201 

1,792 

49% 

6,386 

5,952 

-7% 

104% 

COGS 

-974 

-1,719 

77% 

-5,876 

-5,915 

1% 

103% 

Gross profit 

227 

73 

-68% 

510 

37 

-93% 

N.M. 

SG&A 

10 

-21 

N.M. 

-69 

-79 

15% 

90% 

Operating profit 

236 

52 

-78% 

441 

-43 

-110% 

34% 

Financial income 

32 

35 

8% 

107 

100 

-6% 

74% 

Financial expense 

-12 

-10 

-13% 

-34 

-39 

12% 

102% 

Other income 

N.M. 

72 

N.M. 

103% 

Profit before tax 

257 

76 

-70% 

514 

91 

-82% 

209% 

NPAT-MI, reported 

240 

64 

-73% 

473 

72 

-85% 

185% 

NPAT-MI, core 

240 

64 

-73% 

457 

15 

-97% 

N.M. 

Source: NT2, Vietcap 

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