NT2 – 2024 NPAT beats forecast on high volume, slight upside to 2025F NPAT - Earnings Flash
  • 2025-02-03T00:00:00
  • Company Research

  • 2024: Revenue was VND5,952bn (USD234mn, -7% YoY, 104% of our full-year forecast), with reported NPAT-MI of VND72bn (USD2.8mn, -85% YoY, 185% of our full-year forecast). 

  • Revenue declined 7% YoY due to (1) 6% YoY lower sales volume and (2) ASP ticked down 1% YoY (due to significant lower non-mobilized contracted volume Qc of 74 million kWh vs 467 million kWh in 2023). 

  • Reported NPAT-MI plunged 85% YoY mainly due to: 1) a 33% YoY decrease in contracted volume, and 2) our estimated 6% YoY higher gas price (driven by 3% YoY higher FO prices and depleting cheap domestic gas sources), which outweighed VND70bn from revaluation of inventory for maintenance spare parts (vs none in 2023). 

  • Reported/core NPAT-MI beat our forecasts due to (1) outperforming sales volume, and (2) slightly lower COGS per kWh, potentially due to a lower heat rate following higher production volume while gas prices were in line with our projections. 

  • Q4 2024: Revenue was VND1,792bn (USD71bn, +49% YoY) with reported NPAT-MI of VND64bn (USD2.5mn, -73% YoY). Revenue jumped 49% YoY mainly due to YoY doubled sales volume.  However, earnings plunged due to: 1) a 27% YoY ASP plunge (due to zero non-mobilized Qc volume vs 365 million kWh in Q4 2023) and 2) an estimated 3% YoY higher gas price.  

  • We see slight upside potential to our 2025F NPAT (VND329bn, USD13mn, 5.5x YoY) due to potential higher-than-expected sales volume (as National System and Market Operator have preliminary plans to mobilize 3.5bn kWh from NT2), pending a fuller review. 

  • We currently have a MARKET PERFORM rating for NT2 with a target price of VND19,700/share. 

NT2’s 2024 results  

 VND bn 

Q4 2023 

Q4 2024 

YoY (%) 

2023 

2024 

YoY (%) 

% of 2024F 

Sales volume (mn kWh) 

395 

808 

104% 

2,889 

2,729 

-6% 

105% 

Qc (mn kWh) 

760 

658 

-13% 

3,321 

2,221 

-33% 

105% 

ASP (VND/kWh) 

3,037 

2,219 

-27% 

2,210 

2,181 

-1% 

99% 

Gas price (USD/MMBTU) 

9.1 

9.4 

3% 

9.0 

9.5 

6% 

99% 

Revenue 

1,201 

1,792 

49% 

6,386 

5,952 

-7% 

104% 

COGS 

-974 

-1,719 

77% 

-5,876 

-5,915 

1% 

103% 

Gross profit 

227 

73 

-68% 

510 

37 

-93% 

N.M. 

SG&A 

10 

-21 

N.M. 

-69 

-79 

15% 

90% 

Operating profit 

236 

52 

-78% 

441 

-43 

-110% 

34% 

Financial income 

32 

35 

8% 

107 

100 

-6% 

74% 

Financial expense 

-12 

-10 

-13% 

-34 

-39 

12% 

102% 

Other income 

0 

0 

N.M. 

0 

72 

N.M. 

103% 

Profit before tax 

257 

76 

-70% 

514 

91 

-82% 

209% 

NPAT-MI, reported 

240 

64 

-73% 

473 

72 

-85% 

185% 

NPAT-MI, core 

240 

64 

-73% 

457 

15 

-97% 

N.M. 

Source: NT2, Vietcap 

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