- 2025-02-03T00:00:00
- Company Research
2024: Revenue was VND5,952bn (USD234mn, -7% YoY, 104% of our full-year forecast), with reported NPAT-MI of VND72bn (USD2.8mn, -85% YoY, 185% of our full-year forecast).
Revenue declined 7% YoY due to (1) 6% YoY lower sales volume and (2) ASP ticked down 1% YoY (due to significant lower non-mobilized contracted volume Qc of 74 million kWh vs 467 million kWh in 2023).
Reported NPAT-MI plunged 85% YoY mainly due to: 1) a 33% YoY decrease in contracted volume, and 2) our estimated 6% YoY higher gas price (driven by 3% YoY higher FO prices and depleting cheap domestic gas sources), which outweighed VND70bn from revaluation of inventory for maintenance spare parts (vs none in 2023).
Reported/core NPAT-MI beat our forecasts due to (1) outperforming sales volume, and (2) slightly lower COGS per kWh, potentially due to a lower heat rate following higher production volume while gas prices were in line with our projections.
Q4 2024: Revenue was VND1,792bn (USD71bn, +49% YoY) with reported NPAT-MI of VND64bn (USD2.5mn, -73% YoY). Revenue jumped 49% YoY mainly due to YoY doubled sales volume. However, earnings plunged due to: 1) a 27% YoY ASP plunge (due to zero non-mobilized Qc volume vs 365 million kWh in Q4 2023) and 2) an estimated 3% YoY higher gas price.
We see slight upside potential to our 2025F NPAT (VND329bn, USD13mn, 5.5x YoY) due to potential higher-than-expected sales volume (as National System and Market Operator have preliminary plans to mobilize 3.5bn kWh from NT2), pending a fuller review.
We currently have a MARKET PERFORM rating for NT2 with a target price of VND19,700/share.
NT2’s 2024 results
VND bn | Q4 2023 | Q4 2024 | YoY (%) | 2023 | 2024 | YoY (%) | % of 2024F |
Sales volume (mn kWh) | 395 | 808 | 104% | 2,889 | 2,729 | -6% | 105% |
Qc (mn kWh) | 760 | 658 | -13% | 3,321 | 2,221 | -33% | 105% |
ASP (VND/kWh) | 3,037 | 2,219 | -27% | 2,210 | 2,181 | -1% | 99% |
Gas price (USD/MMBTU) | 9.1 | 9.4 | 3% | 9.0 | 9.5 | 6% | 99% |
Revenue | 1,201 | 1,792 | 49% | 6,386 | 5,952 | -7% | 104% |
COGS | -974 | -1,719 | 77% | -5,876 | -5,915 | 1% | 103% |
Gross profit | 227 | 73 | -68% | 510 | 37 | -93% | N.M. |
SG&A | 10 | -21 | N.M. | -69 | -79 | 15% | 90% |
Operating profit | 236 | 52 | -78% | 441 | -43 | -110% | 34% |
Financial income | 32 | 35 | 8% | 107 | 100 | -6% | 74% |
Financial expense | -12 | -10 | -13% | -34 | -39 | 12% | 102% |
Other income | 0 | 0 | N.M. | 0 | 72 | N.M. | 103% |
Profit before tax | 257 | 76 | -70% | 514 | 91 | -82% | 209% |
NPAT-MI, reported | 240 | 64 | -73% | 473 | 72 | -85% | 185% |
NPAT-MI, core | 240 | 64 | -73% | 457 | 15 | -97% | N.M. |
Source: NT2, Vietcap
Powered by Froala Editor