• We attended NLG’s annual general meeting (AGM) on April 20. 
• Shareholders approved management’s 2024G guidance for revenue of VND6.7tn (USD266mn; +109% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND506bn (USD20mn; +5% YoY). We note that if including the unconsolidated Mizuki Park project, NLG’s guidance for 2024G underlying property revenue is VND6.73tn (USD269mn; -4% YoY). NLG’s 2024G underlying property revenue and NPAT-MI represent 107% and 92% of our respective forecasts, which we attribute the discrepancy mainly to higher-than-expected SG&A expenses. 
• Shareholders approved a FY2023 dividend payment plan that includes a total cash dividend of VND192bn (USD8mn) — equivalent to VND500/share (1.4% yield) — expected to be paid in Q2 2024.
• Shareholders approved a FY2024 cash dividend plan of VND192bn (USD8mn) — equivalent to VND500/share (1.4% yield). If the actual 2024 NPAT-MI exceeds 30% of the guidance, the cash dividend rate will be increased accordingly but will not exceed 10% on par value. Depending on the business situation, an interim dividend for the FY2024 dividend will be paid in advance at 50% in December 2024, or at another time, while the remaining part will be paid after the 2025 AGM.
• Shareholders approved an ESOP to issue up to 446,276 shares (equivalent to 0.1% of current O/S) in 2024 with a trading restriction for one year. This is the number of shares in the third tranche of the 2021 ESOP. 

 Management expects 2024G key property handovers from Akari City Phase 2 and Can Tho. NLG guides for 2024G underlying property revenue (including unconsolidated project Mizuki Park) of VND6.73tn (USD269mn; -4% YoY), mainly driven by the start of handovers of nearly 1,000 condo units at Akari City Phase 2 in Q4 2024G (equivalent to revenue of ~VND3tn/USD136mn, per our estimate) and Can Tho (with revenue of over VND2tn/USD80mn, per management). 

Management guides for 2024G NPAT-MI growth of 5% YoY. Management expects (1) property handovers (as mentioned above), (2) recognition of a 25% stake transfer for the Paragon project, and (3) commercial land sales (details have not been disclosed) to support 2024G earnings growth. The 2024G NPAT-MI guidance is 8% lower than our forecast (VND549bn/USD22mn; +13% YoY), which we mainly attribute to higher-than-expected SG&A expenses.

Management targets 2024G presales to increase 2.5x YoY. NLG targets for 2024G presales of VND9.55tn (USD388mn; +2.5x YoY), mainly driven by Southgate, Mizuki Park, Can Tho, and remaining units at Akari City Phase 2. This target is 71% higher than our forecast of VND5.6tn (USD225mn; +47% YoY). We note that NLG’s presales in 2021/22/23 were equivalent to 65%/35%/41% of their respective guidance set at the beginning of each year.

Preliminary Q1 2024 results: Management stated at the AGM that Q1 2024 weak property handovers were mainly due to the timing recognition of handovers (including the Can Tho project) while Q1 2024 presales were VND1.16tn (USD46mn; +4x YoY but -47% QoQ). We currently expect H2 2024 to significantly contribute to our full-year NPAT-MI forecast, meanwhile the lower QoQ presales in Q1 2024 are broadly in line with our expectations.

Management’s update on the legal status of some projects:

• Izumi City (Dong Nai): Expect to receive the revised 1/500 master plan approval for this project in end-2024 or Q1 2025, implying slight downside risk to our 2024F presales forecast for this project (contributing 16% to our 2024F presales forecast).
• Paragon (Dong Nai): Observed some positive legal progress at this project. Management is confident to recognize a 25% stake sale of Paragon in 2024G. We currently expect the recognition of this stake sale to contribute ~30% of our 2024F NPAT-MI forecast.   
• Can Tho (Can Tho): Expect to finalize the land use rights fee calculation and start to recognize handovers in Q2 2024G. We currently forecast Can Tho to contribute 16% to our 2024F presales and 14% to our 2024F underlying property revenue forecasts.

Management looks for opportunities to divest stakes in projects and non-core assets in the medium term. Management anticipates generating VND6tn (USD240mn) in total proceeds from selling stakes in pipeline projects and non-core assets (e.g., commercial land sales) in the medium term, subject to market conditions, to fund for project development and land bank expansion.

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