- We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating for NLG and increase our target price by 5.6% to VND43,300/share. Our higher target price is mainly due to (i) better-than-expected presales at Southgate and Akari City Phase 2 (P2) in Q4 2023, leading to faster cash inflows vs our previous projection, and (ii) higher valuation for the Hai Phong project as we apply a DCF method vs our previous P/B approach.

- We forecast 2024F NPAT-MI to increase 13% YoY to VND549bn (USD23mn), which is supported by strong unbilled backlogs at-end 2023 (mainly handovers at the Southgate project) and the Paragon stake sales recognition. We decrease our 2024F NPAT-MI forecast by 15% mainly due to lowering our handover projection at the Mizuki Park project following faster-than-expected recognition of this project in Q4 2023. We increase our 2025F NPAT-MI forecast slightly by 4% mainly due to property handover timing.

- NLG’s 2023 presales were VND4.0tn (USD164mn) and surpassed our forecast of VND2.8tn (USD115mn) mainly due to Q4 2023 higher-than-expected presales at Southgate (driven by VIP customer purchases for villa products and block sales at Ehome Southgate). We continue to expect strong presales in 2024F at VND5.6tn (USD232mn; +40% YoY), with Southgate contributing 37%, Mizuki Park 22%, Can Tho 16% and Izumi City 16%. 

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