NLG - Increased presales in October and November 2024, with 11M figures in line with expectations

We attended NLG’s analyst meeting on Tuesday, December 10. Our key takeaways are below:

11M 2024 presales updates:

* NLG’s presales in October and November 2024 amounted to VND1.05tn (USD42mn), mainly supported by the Can Tho project (58% contribution) and Southgate (29%). Of which, the presales launch of the land plot phase at the Can Tho project began on November 17, following the completion of the land use rights fee payment in September 2024, resulting in VND528bn (USD21mn) of presales in November 2024.

* NLG’s 11M 2024 presales were VND4.6tn (USD183mn), with Akari City Phase 2 contributing 37%, Southgate 31%, Can Tho 19%, and Mizuki Park 13%.

* Management expects to achieve 2024G presales of ~VND5.5tn (USD220mn), which is lower than the company’s 2024G initial guidance (VND9.55tn/USD382mn; set at the April 2024 AGM) but aligns with our 2024F forecast (VND5.5tn/USD220mn; +45% YoY).

2024G revenue guidance:

* Management expects Q4 2024G underlying property revenue of VND5.6tn (USD223mn) vs the low base of VND1.5tn (USD58mn) in 9M 2024, primarily from handovers at Akari City Phase 2 and the Can Tho project, which began in October 2024.

* NLG’s 2024G underlying property revenue (VND7.0tn/USD282mn; flat YoY) is higher than our forecast (VND5.7tn/USD228mn; -19% YoY), which we mainly attribute to a higher handover projection at the Can Tho project in Q4 2024.

* Management has not updated their expectations for NLG’s earnings for Q4 or full-year 2024G. The 2024G NPAT-MI guidance approved at the AGM is VND506bn (USD20mn; +5% YoY).

2025G guidance:

* The 2025G guidance is not yet finalized, but management anticipates higher presales than the 2024 initial guidance (VND9.55tn/USD382mn) and a YoY increase in NPAT-MI for 2025G.

* Management expects 2025G presales to be driven by next-phase launches at existing projects and new project launches, including Hai Phong and Paragon.

* We currently have a BUY rating for NLG and forecast 35% YoY growth in 2025F presales (VND7.4tn/USD296mn) and a 27% YoY increase in 2025F NPAT-MI, as detailed in our October 29 Update Report.