- 2025-01-23T00:00:00
- Company Research
NLG announced strong Q4 2024 results from the low base in 9M 2024 with underlying property revenue of VND7.2tn/USD281mn (+11x vs 9M 2024 and +2.6x YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND497bn/USD19.5mn (vs minimal 9M 2024 earnings of VND15bn/USD0.6mn and +71% YoY). The start of scheduled handovers at the Akari City Phase 2 (P2) and Can Tho projects were the main earnings driver for Q4 2024. The earnings results are in line with the preliminary figures shared in early January.
For full-year 2024, NLG reported underlying property revenue increasing 10% YoY to VND7.8tn (USD306mn) and NPAT-MI increasing 6% YoY to VND512bn (USD20mn), surpassing our respective forecasts by 37% and 8%. We attribute the stronger-than-expected earnings mainly to higher-than-expected recognition of handovers at Akari City P2 in Q4 2024.
Per NLG, the company plans for potential project stake sales in 2025G. As such, we foresee upside potential to our 2025F NPAT-MI forecast, pending a fuller review.
Presales: NLG’s Q4 2024 presales reached VND1.7tn (USD66mn; +2x QoQ but -22% YoY due to VIP customer purchases for villa products at Southgate in Q4 2023), driven by the presales launch of the land plot phase at the Can Tho project in November and a QoQ increase in presales at Southgate.
In 2024, NLG achieved total presales of VND5.2tn (USD204mn; +33% YoY), with contributions of 36% from Akari City P2, 28% from Southgate, and 21% from Can Tho. As the 2024 presales completed 95% of our forecast, we foresee insignificant changes to our 2025F presales forecast of VND7.4tn (USD290mn; +42% YoY), pending a fuller review.
Cash balance improved QoQ in Q4 2024: As of end-2024, NLG’s cash and cash equivalents (including short term deposits) reached VND6.2tn/USD245mn, up significantly by VND3.8tn/USD148mn QoQ and VND2.6tn/USD104mn YTD. We attribute the cash balance increase primarily due to accelerated property handovers in Q4 2024 (mainly at Akari City P2).
Figure 1: NLG’s property presales
VND bn | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | 2024 |
Akari City | 1,420 | 560 | 860 | 150 | 80 | 300 | 680 | 910 | 540 | 570 | 510 | 240 | 1,860 |
Southgate | 480 | 1,090 | 650 | 80 | 70 | 130 | 120 | 1,070 | 280 | 670 | 160 | 350 | 1,460 |
Mizuki Park | 760 | 2,050 | - | - | 90 | 200 | 100 | 170 | 250 | 220 | 50 | 130 | 640 |
Can Tho | 120 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 100 | 50 | 130 | 830 | 1,110 |
Izumi City | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 130* | 130* |
Total | 2,780 | 3,700 | 1,510 | 230 | 240 | 630 | 900 | 2,150 | 1,170 | 1,510 | 850 | 1,680 | 5,200 |
Source: NLG, Vietcap compilation (Presales rounded to nearest ten). Note: (*) 21 presold units at Izumi City P1 in December 2024, which were refunded by previous customers from the first launch in 2021.
Figure 2: NLG’s 2024 results
VND bn | Q4 | Q4 | YoY | 2023 | 2024 | YoY | 2024F | 2024 as % of 2024F |
Net revenue | 1,636 | 6,369 | 289% | 3,181 | 7,196 | 126% | 5,112 | 141% |
| 1,546 | 6,267 | 305% | 2,905 | 6,945 | 139% | 4,939 | 141% |
| 90 | 101 | 13% | 276 | 251 | -9% | 174 | 144% |
Gross profit | 692 | 2,724 | 294% | 1,562 | 3,068 | 96% | 2,124 | 144% |
| 754 | 2,693 | 257% | 1,544 | 3,012 | 95% | 2,098 | 144% |
| -62 | 31 | N.M. | 18 | 56 | 210% | 26 | 213% |
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SG&A expenses | -354 | -898 | 153% | -980 | -1,390 | 42% | -1,169 | 119% |
EBIT | 338 | 1,827 | 441% | 582 | 1,678 | 188% | 955 | 176% |
Financial income | 128 | 40 | -69% | 238 | 337 | 42% | 322 | 105% |
Financial expense | -87 | -153 | 76% | -296 | -331 | 12% | -266 | 125% |
Profit from associates | 213 | 16 | -93% | 418 | 100 | -76% | 99 | 101% |
Other gain/loss | 19 | 18 | -4% | 27 | 56 | 111% | 30 | 186% |
PBT | 611 | 1,747 | 186% | 968 | 1,839 | 90% | 1,139 | 161% |
Effective tax expenses | -129 | -420 | 226% | -168 | -457 | 173% | -208 | 220% |
NPAT | 482 | 1,327 | 175% | 800 | 1,382 | 73% | 931 | 148% |
Minority interest | -192 | -831 | 332% | -317 | -869 | 175% | -457 | 190% |
NPAT-MI | 290 | 497 | 71% | 484 | 512 | 6% | 475 | 108% |
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Gross margin | 42.3% | 42.8% |
| 49.1% | 42.6% |
| 41.5% |
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| 48.8% | 43.0% |
| 53.1% | 43.4% |
| 42.5% |
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| -69.2% | 31.0% |
| 6.5% | 22.2% |
| 15.0% |
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SG&A as % of revenue | 21.7% | 14.1% |
| 30.8% | 19.3% |
| 22.9% |
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EBIT margin | 20.6% | 28.7% |
| 18.3% | 23.3% |
| 18.7% |
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NPAT-MI margin | 17.7% | 7.8% |
| 15.2% | 7.1% |
| 9.3% |
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Source: NLG, Vietcap forecast (last updated October 29, 2024)
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