NLG – 2024 earnings surpass forecast due to higher-than-expected Q4 recognition of handovers at Akari City P2 – Earnings Flash
  • 2025-01-23T00:00:00
  • Company Research

  • NLG announced strong Q4 2024 results from the low base in 9M 2024 with underlying property revenue of VND7.2tn/USD281mn (+11x vs 9M 2024 and +2.6x YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND497bn/USD19.5mn (vs minimal 9M 2024 earnings of VND15bn/USD0.6mn and +71% YoY). The start of scheduled handovers at the Akari City Phase 2 (P2) and Can Tho projects were the main earnings driver for Q4 2024. The earnings results are in line with the preliminary figures shared in early January. 

  • For full-year 2024, NLG reported underlying property revenue increasing 10% YoY to VND7.8tn (USD306mn) and NPAT-MI increasing 6% YoY to VND512bn (USD20mn), surpassing our respective forecasts by 37% and 8%. We attribute the stronger-than-expected earnings mainly to higher-than-expected recognition of handovers at Akari City P2 in Q4 2024. 

  • Per NLG, the company plans for potential project stake sales in 2025G. As such, we foresee upside potential to our 2025F NPAT-MI forecast, pending a fuller review. 

  • Presales: NLG’s Q4 2024 presales reached VND1.7tn (USD66mn; +2x QoQ but -22% YoY due to VIP customer purchases for villa products at Southgate in Q4 2023), driven by the presales launch of the land plot phase at the Can Tho project in November and a QoQ increase in presales at Southgate.  

  • In 2024, NLG achieved total presales of VND5.2tn (USD204mn; +33% YoY), with contributions of 36% from Akari City P2, 28% from Southgate, and 21% from Can Tho. As the 2024 presales completed 95% of our forecast, we foresee insignificant changes to our 2025F presales forecast of VND7.4tn (USD290mn; +42% YoY), pending a fuller review.  

  • Cash balance improved QoQ in Q4 2024: As of end-2024, NLG’s cash and cash equivalents (including short term deposits) reached VND6.2tn/USD245mn, up significantly by VND3.8tn/USD148mn QoQ and VND2.6tn/USD104mn YTD. We attribute the cash balance increase primarily due to accelerated property handovers in Q4 2024 (mainly at Akari City P2). 

Figure 1: NLG’s property presales 

VND bn 

Q1  
2022 

Q2  
2022 

Q3  
2022 

Q4  
2022 

Q1  
2023 

Q2  
2023 

Q3  
2023 

Q4  
2023 

Q1  
2024 

Q2  
2024 

Q3  
2024 

Q4  
2024 

2024 

Akari City 

1,420 

560 

860 

150 

80 

300 

680 

910 

540 

570 

510 

240 

1,860 

Southgate 

480 

1,090 

650 

80 

70 

130 

120 

1,070 

280 

670 

160 

350 

1,460 

Mizuki Park 

760 

2,050 

- 

- 

90 

200 

100 

170 

250 

220 

50 

130 

640 

Can Tho 

120 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

100 

50 

130 

830 

1,110 

Izumi City 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

130* 

130* 

Total 

2,780 

3,700 

1,510 

230 

240 

630 

900 

2,150 

1,170 

1,510 

850 

1,680 

5,200 

Source: NLG, Vietcap compilation (Presales rounded to nearest ten). Note: (*) 21 presold units at Izumi City P1 in December 2024, which were refunded by previous customers from the first launch in 2021. 

Figure 2: NLG’s 2024 results  

VND bn 

Q4   
   2023 

Q4   
 2024 

YoY 

2023 

2024 

YoY 

2024F 

2024 as % of 2024F 

Net revenue  

1,636 

6,369 

289% 

3,181 

7,196 

126% 

5,112 

141% 

  1. Property sales  

1,546 

6,267 

305% 

2,905 

6,945 

139% 

4,939 

141% 

  1. Others  

90 

101 

13% 

276 

251 

-9% 

174 

144% 

Gross profit  

692 

2,724 

294% 

1,562 

3,068 

96% 

2,124 

144% 

  1. Property sales  

754 

2,693 

257% 

1,544 

3,012 

95% 

2,098 

144% 

  1. Others  

-62 

31 

N.M. 

18 

56 

210% 

26 

213% 

  

 

 

  

 

 

  

 

  

SG&A expenses  

-354 

-898 

153% 

-980 

-1,390 

42% 

-1,169 

119% 

EBIT  

338 

1,827 

441% 

582 

1,678 

188% 

955 

176% 

Financial income  

128 

40 

-69% 

238 

337 

42% 

322 

105% 

Financial expense  

-87 

-153 

76% 

-296 

-331 

12% 

-266 

125% 

Profit from associates  

213 

16 

-93% 

418 

100 

-76% 

99 

101% 

Other gain/loss  

19 

18 

-4% 

27 

56 

111% 

30 

186% 

PBT  

611 

1,747 

186% 

968 

1,839 

90% 

1,139 

161% 

Effective tax expenses  

-129 

-420 

226% 

-168 

-457 

173% 

-208 

220% 

NPAT  

482 

1,327 

175% 

800 

1,382 

73% 

931 

148% 

Minority interest  

-192 

-831 

332% 

-317 

-869 

175% 

-457 

190% 

NPAT-MI  

290 

497 

71% 

484 

512 

6% 

475 

108% 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross margin  

42.3% 

42.8% 

 

49.1% 

42.6% 

 

41.5% 

 

  1. Property sales  

48.8% 

43.0% 

 

53.1% 

43.4% 

 

42.5% 

 

  1. Others  

-69.2% 

31.0% 

 

6.5% 

22.2% 

 

15.0% 

 

SG&A as % of revenue  

21.7% 

14.1% 

 

30.8% 

19.3% 

 

22.9% 

 

EBIT margin  

20.6% 

28.7% 

 

18.3% 

23.3% 

 

18.7% 

 

NPAT-MI margin  

17.7% 

7.8% 

 

15.2% 

7.1% 

 

9.3% 

 

Source: NLG, Vietcap forecast (last updated October 29, 2024)  

 

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