- We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating for NKG with a broadly unchanged target price (TP) of VND12,000/share (vs the previous TP of VND11,900, adjusted for changes in shares outstanding).

- Rolling our valuation forward to end-2027 supports our TP, offsetting lower earnings forecasts and a slight increase in WACC to 12.3% from 12.2%. We replace our previous ten-year multistage DCF with a five-year DCF based on 2027-2031F cash-flow forecasts, covering NKPM's ramp-up to full utilization, and maintain 1.5% terminal growth thereafter.

- We cut 2026/27/28/29/30/31F NPAT-MI forecasts by 52%/82%/74%/68%/54%/54%, respectively. The cuts mainly reflect weaker domestic sales amid stronger-than-expected competition and lower margins due to higher HRC input costs following Vietnam's anti-dumping (AD) duties on Chinese HRC.

- Upside potential: Stronger exports and a faster NKPM ramp-up. Downside risks: Further trade restrictions in export markets, weaker spreads, and a slower-than-expected NKPM ramp-up.

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