- 2024-10-29T00:00:00
- Company Research
MBB released its consolidated results for 9M 2024 with PBT of VND20.7tn (USD829mn; +4% YoY), completing 71% of our full-year forecast. This implies Q3 2024 PBT of VND7.3tn (-4% QoQ; flat YoY). Overall, MBB’s profit and NIM were in line with our current full-year forecasts. However, the QoQ deterioration in asset quality and lower provisioning buffer were below our expectations, implying potential pressure on MBB’s provision expenses in coming quarters. We see potential downside risk to our earnings forecast, pending a more extensive review.
- 9M 2024 credit growth was 13.5% (loan growth: 14.9%). Q3 2024 corporate bonds decreased 9% vs YE 2023 and contributed 5% to total credit. Additionally, lending to real estate businesses accounted for 7.9% of MBB’s total loan book.
- 9M 2024 deposit growth was 10.6%. The Q3 2024 CASA ratio was 36.5% (-2.1 ppt QoQ; flat YoY), which was the highest level among banks that have reported their results so far (same level as TCB).
- 9M 2024 NIM was 4.17% (-113 bps YoY) vs our full-year forecast of 4.19%. Q3 2024 NIM was 4.24% (-34 bps QoQ; -79 bps YoY). The QoQ contraction in NIM was driven by a 29-bp QoQ decrease in the IEA yield amid (1) ongoing stiff competition in lending rates and (2) potential accrued interest reversals resulting from surging NPLs.
- 9M 2024 NOII was VND8.8tn (+47% YoY), completing 69% of our full-year forecast and tracking slightly behind our expectation mainly due to weaker-than-expected gains from trading and investment securities.
- 9M 2024 CIR was 30.3% (flat YoY; roughly the same as our full-year forecast).
- NPL ratio jumped QoQ. Q3 2024 NPL ratio was 2.23% (+60 bps QoQ; +35 bps YoY). Q3 2024 group 2 loans to gross loans was 1.89% (+4 bps QoQ; -108 bps YoY). Q3 2024 consolidated LLR was 68.8% (-33 ppts QoQ; -53 ppts YoY). The QoQ increase in Q3 2024 NPL ratio was mainly driven by a 65% QoQ increase in Group 3 loans and a 59% increase in Group 5 loans. According to the bank, the parent bank’s Q3 2024 NPL ratio before CIC classification was 1.6%.
MBB’s consolidated 9M 2024 results
VND bn | 9M 2023 | 9M 2024 | YoY | Q3 2023 | Q3 2024 | YoY |
NII | 29,520 | 30,010 | 1.7% | 9,812 | 10,417 | 6.2% |
Non-interest income | 6,035 | 8,840 | 46.5% | 2,253 | 2,287 | 1.5% |
OPEX | (11,037) | (11,761) | 6.6% | (3,334) | (3,756) | 12.7% |
PPOP | 24,519 | 27,089 | 10.5% | 8,731 | 8,948 | 2.5% |
Provision expenses | (4,500) | (6,353) | 41.2% | (1,447) | (1,640) | 13.3% |
NPAT-MI | 15,690 | 16,350 | 4.2% | 5,773 | 5,790 | 0.3% |
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Loan growth** | 16.4% | 14.9% | -1.6 ppts | 3.5% | 4.2% | 0.7 ppts |
Deposit growth** | 8.1% | 10.6% | 2.4 ppts | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.5 ppts |
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NIM | 5.31% | 4.17% | -113 bps | 5.03% | 4.24% | -79 bps |
Interest-earning asset yield | 9.37% | 7.03% | -234 bps | 8.88% | 7.09% | -179 bps |
Cost of funds | 4.71% | 3.30% | -141 bps | 4.45% | 3.30% | -115 bps |
CASA ratio* | 36.0% | 36.5% | 0.6 ppts | 36.0% | 36.5% | 0.6 ppts |
CASA ratio plus term deposits in FX | 37.1% | 37.8% | 0.7 ppts | 37.1% | 37.8% | 0.7 ppts |
CIR | 31.0% | 30.3% | -0.8 ppts | 27.6% | 29.6% | 1.9 ppts |
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NPLs / Gross loans | 1.89% | 2.23% | 35 bps | 1.89% | 2.23% | 35 bps |
Group 2 loans / Gross loans | 2.97% | 1.89% | -108 bps | 2.97% | 1.89% | -108 bps |
Accrued interest / IEAs | 1.27% | 0.96% | -31 bps | 1.27% | 0.96% | -31 bps |
Source: MBB, Vietcap — *CASA volume included demand deposits and margin deposits; ** Q3 2023 and Q3 2024 loan and deposit growth is QoQ growth.
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