MBB – CASA ratio remains top-tier; Asset quality deteriorates - Earnings Flash
  • 2024-10-29T00:00:00
  • Company Research

MBB released its consolidated results for 9M 2024 with PBT of VND20.7tn (USD829mn; +4% YoY), completing 71% of our full-year forecast. This implies Q3 2024 PBT of VND7.3tn (-4% QoQ; flat YoY). Overall, MBB’s profit and NIM were in line with our current full-year forecasts. However, the QoQ deterioration in asset quality and lower provisioning buffer were below our expectations, implying potential pressure on MBB’s provision expenses in coming quarters. We see potential downside risk to our earnings forecast, pending a more extensive review.

  • 9M 2024 credit growth was 13.5% (loan growth: 14.9%). Q3 2024 corporate bonds decreased 9% vs YE 2023 and contributed 5% to total credit. Additionally, lending to real estate businesses accounted for 7.9% of MBB’s total loan book.
  • 9M 2024 deposit growth was 10.6%. The Q3 2024 CASA ratio was 36.5% (-2.1 ppt QoQ; flat YoY), which was the highest level among banks that have reported their results so far (same level as TCB). 
  • 9M 2024 NIM was 4.17% (-113 bps YoY) vs our full-year forecast of 4.19%. Q3 2024 NIM was 4.24% (-34 bps QoQ; -79 bps YoY). The QoQ contraction in NIM was driven by a 29-bp QoQ decrease in the IEA yield amid (1) ongoing stiff competition in lending rates and (2) potential accrued interest reversals resulting from surging NPLs.  
  • 9M 2024 NOII was VND8.8tn (+47% YoY), completing 69% of our full-year forecast and tracking slightly behind our expectation mainly due to weaker-than-expected gains from trading and investment securities. 
  • 9M 2024 CIR was 30.3% (flat YoY; roughly the same as our full-year forecast). 
  • NPL ratio jumped QoQ. Q3 2024 NPL ratio was 2.23% (+60 bps QoQ; +35 bps YoY). Q3 2024 group 2 loans to gross loans was 1.89% (+4 bps QoQ; -108 bps YoY). Q3 2024 consolidated LLR was 68.8% (-33 ppts QoQ; -53 ppts YoY). The QoQ increase in Q3 2024 NPL ratio was mainly driven by a 65% QoQ increase in Group 3 loans and a 59% increase in Group 5 loans. According to the bank, the parent bank’s Q3 2024 NPL ratio before CIC classification was 1.6%.

MBB’s consolidated 9M 2024 results

VND bn 

 9M 2023 

 9M 2024 

 YoY 

 Q3 2023 

 Q3 2024 

 YoY 

 NII 

 29,520 

 30,010 

1.7%

 9,812 

 10,417 

6.2%

 Non-interest income 

 6,035 

 8,840 

46.5%

 2,253 

 2,287 

1.5%

 OPEX 

 (11,037)

 (11,761)

6.6%

 (3,334)

 (3,756)

12.7%

 PPOP  

 24,519 

 27,089 

10.5%

 8,731 

 8,948 

2.5%

 Provision expenses 

 (4,500)

 (6,353)

41.2%

 (1,447)

 (1,640)

13.3%

 NPAT-MI     

 15,690 

 16,350 

4.2%

 5,773 

 5,790 

0.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Loan growth** 

16.4%

14.9%

-1.6 ppts

3.5%

4.2%

0.7 ppts

 Deposit growth**  

8.1%

10.6%

2.4 ppts

0.9%

1.4%

0.5 ppts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 NIM 

5.31%

4.17%

-113 bps

5.03%

4.24%

-79 bps

 Interest-earning asset yield 

9.37%

7.03%

-234 bps

8.88%

7.09%

-179 bps

 Cost of funds 

4.71%

3.30%

-141 bps

4.45%

3.30%

-115 bps

 CASA ratio* 

36.0%

36.5%

0.6 ppts

36.0%

36.5%

0.6 ppts

 CASA ratio plus term deposits in FX    

37.1%

37.8%

0.7 ppts

37.1%

37.8%

0.7 ppts

 CIR 

31.0%

30.3%

-0.8 ppts

27.6%

29.6%

1.9 ppts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 NPLs / Gross loans   

1.89%

2.23%

35 bps

1.89%

2.23%

35 bps

 Group 2 loans / Gross loans  

2.97%

1.89%

-108 bps

2.97%

1.89%

-108 bps

 Accrued interest / IEAs  

1.27%

0.96%

-31 bps

1.27%

0.96%

-31 bps

 

Source: MBB, Vietcap — *CASA volume included demand deposits and margin deposits; ** Q3 2023 and Q3 2024 loan and deposit growth is QoQ growth.

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