- We maintain our BUY rating and increase our target price (TP) by 11% to VND31,000/share due to the positive impact of (1) rolling our TP horizon forward to mid-2026F, (2) a lower cost of equity (due to lower beta), and (3) increasing our target P/B from 1.1x to 1.2x. These factors are partly offset by a 3% cut in our aggregate earnings forecast for 2025-2029F (respective changes of +3%/0%/-3%/-5%/-6% in 2025/26/27/28/29F).

- We increase our forecast for 2025 NPAT-MI by 3% to VND25.8tn (USD1bn; +14% YoY), primarily due to our 4% increase in NOII following a strong momentum in recovery of bad debts in Q1 2025 and a 10% cut in our OPEX forecast given better-than-expected CIR management in Q1 2025. These are partly offset by a 14% increase in provision expenses to handle bad debts. 

- MBB stated that its 2025F AGM PBT target of VND32tn (+10% YoY) has anticipated certain negative tariff impacts. MBB should benefit from the recovery of real estate and accelerating public investment. We expect MBB to maintain its ROE of 20% on average in 2025F-2027F.

- MBB has a plan to buy back 100mn shares (1.6% outstanding shares) in 2025-2026 via order matching to protect shareholders’ interest amid potential market volatility.

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