- IIP of the manufacturing sub-sector maintained strong growth: In 4M 2025, the overall IIP grew by 8.4% YoY. The manufacturing and processing sector led this growth with a 10.1% YoY increase. The latest PMI figures suggest that exports and production activity may face increasing downside risks in the coming months. However, production could remain relatively resilient in the short term, as US firms may accelerate inventory purchases from Vietnam during the 90-day reciprocal tariffs pause, providing temporary support to manufacturing and exports.

- Holidays and sustained international arrivals boosted retail sales in April. Total retail sales of goods and services posted strong growth at 11.1% YoY in April (April 2024: +8.8% YoY), bringing 4M 2025 retail sales growth to 9.9% YoY (4M 2024: +8.6% YoY). We expect retail sales in May to maintain their upward trend, supported by the extended holiday period at the start of the month and continued strong international arrivals, particularly with Chinese tourists.

- Public investment disbursement posted strong growth in 4M 2025. State budget revenue and expenditures surged 26.3% YoY and 15.2% YoY to VND944.1tn (USD36.5bn) and VND595.4tn (USD23.0bn), respectively in 4M 2025, resulting in a fiscal surplus of VND348.7tn (USD13.5bn). Public investment surged 16.3% YoY to VND128.5tn (USD5.0bn), fulfilling 16.3% of the annual target (vs 17.1% in 4M 2024). On April 5, the Prime Minister issued Dispatch 32/CD-TTg to urge faster disbursement, followed by Dispatch 60/CĐ-TTg with further urgent directives.

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