Q4 growth hit its highest level since 2019. According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO), Vietnam’s GDP increased 6.7% YoY in Q4 2023 – the highest Q4 growth since 2019 – bringing overall GDP growth in 2023 to 5.0% YoY. This figure was in line with our 2023 GDP growth forecast; however, it is lower than the Government's target of 6.5%.  

We lower our 2024 GDP growth forecast from 7.0% to 6.5% as we expect export demand to remain weak in H1 2024 before a fuller recovery in H2 2024. We forecast GDP growth at 6.8% in 2025F and 7.0% in 2026F (which is similar to Vietnam’s average growth rate in the five years before the COVID-19 pandemic).

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