KBC [BUY +23.7%] - Expecting Trang Due 3 approval to drive 2024 IP land sales

- We maintain our BUY rating for KBC and raise our target price by 14% to VND40,200/share.

- Our higher target price is mainly attributable to (1) our 12% higher valuation for the Trang Cat UA project as we factor the increase in the saleable area of this project in accordance with its revised 1/500 masterplan and (2) a reduced discount to our estimated RNAV for KBC to 10% vs 15% previously, as we anticipate a more favorable outlook for KBC’s residential projects (especially the Trang Cat UA project).

- We forecast 2024/25F NPAT-MI of VND2.1tn (USD88mn; +7% YoY) and VND3.3tn (USD136mn; +55% vs 2024F), respectively. This growth projection is driven by our expectations for (1) a YoY higher contribution from the UA segment (Phuc Ninh UA handovers in 2024F and Trang Cat UA handovers in 2025F) and (2) sustained IP land handovers at 155 ha/ 142 ha in 2024/25F, respectively (vs 151 ha in 2023), supported by new IP launches such as Trang Due 3 (TD3).