- We reiterate our BUY rating for KBC but trim our target price (TP) by 3% to VND36,500/share. 

- Our lower TP is mainly because we factor in the upcoming private placement based on our assumptions for an issue price of VND24,000/share (80% of the one-month average market price) and full subscription (250 million shares/33% of current O/S), partially offset by our higher valuations for the Trang Cat UA and IP segments.

- We forecast 2025F NPAT-MI to quadruple YoY to VND1.7tn (USD67mn) as we expect IP land handovers to recover to 144 ha (vs a low base of ~33 ha in 2024; ~60 ha YTD), driven by the launches of the Trang Due 3 IP (Hai Phong) and Hung Yen ICs (Hung Yen). 

- We raise our 2025/26F NPAT-MI forecasts by 15%/12%, respectively, primarily due to upward revisions in our projections for 2025/26F IP land handovers, driven by stronger-than-expected land sales progress YTD across KBC’s IPs, as well as higher projected land sales and handovers at the Trang Cat UA for 2026F.

- We continue to view KBC as a key beneficiary of the global manufacturing shift to Vietnam, potentially accelerated under US President Donald Trump’s administration, with a strong history of attracting major tenants like LG, Foxconn, and Goertek.

- According to KBC’s 2025 EGM, the company is proceeding with its private placement plan and expects to execute the plan in Q2 2025G after it receives approval from the SSC.

- Downside risks to our positive view: Delays in launching new projects and/or investment delays from potential customers.

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