KBC - 2024 NPAT-MI trails forecasts while 2025F IP land sales recovery remains on track - Earnings Flash
  • 2025-02-03T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • KBC released its Q4 2024 results with revenue of VND781bn (USD31mn; -18% QoQ and -5% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND75bn (USD2.9mn; -62% QoQ and -29% YoY). NPAT-MI declined YoY in Q4 2024 mainly due to lower IP land handovers of ~3.4 ha from the Tan Phu Trung (TPT) and Nam Son Hap Linh (NSHL) IPs. 
  • 2024 revenue and NPAT-MI were VND2.8tn (USD109mn; -51% YoY) and VND426bn (USD17mn; -79% YoY), completing 106% and 85% of our respective full-year forecasts. 2024 NPAT-MI trailed our expectations mainly due to lower IP land handovers of ~33 ha (-78% YoY), compared to our forecast of 43 ha. 
  • For the IP segment, 2024 revenue was VND1.2tn (USD47mn; -77% YoY), driven by the handovers of ~33 ha in 2024 at the NSHL (19.4 ha), Quang Chau (12 ha), and TPT IPs (1.4 ha).
  • IP land sales in 2024 totaled ~17 ha from the NSHL IP. IP land sales showed signs of recovery in 2025 as KBC recently signed an MOU for ~30 ha in the newly launched Hung Yen industrial clusters. Additionally, the company is in discussion to sign MOUs/contracts for ~70 ha at the NSHL IP. We currently forecast KBC to record IP land sales/handovers of 115 ha in 2025F. 
  • For the residential segment, handovers at the Nenh Town social housing project (Bac Giang, 12.6 ha with 7,000 units in total; presales started in August 2023) for ~5 ha in 2024 were the main revenue driver in the year.
  • In early 2025, KBC received investment approval for new IP projects including the Trang Due 3 IP (Hai Phong; 653 ha of total site area) and Kim Thanh 2 phase 1 (Hai Duong; 235 ha of total site area) and the revised investment approval for the Trang Cat UA (Hai Phong; 585 ha of total site area).
  • Overall, we anticipate no significant changes to our 2025F forecasts (pending a fuller review) as the recent pickup in IP land sales, as well as new project approvals, were broadly in line with our expectations. 

KBC’s 2024 results  

VND bn

Q4
 2023

Q4
 2024

YoY

2023

2024

YoY

2024F

2024 as %
 of 2024F

Net revenue 

821

781

-5%

5,618

2,776

-51%

2,621

106%

- IP 

654

78

-88%

5,221

1,195

-77%

1,576

76%

- UA 

26

488

19.1x

105

910

8.7x

424

215%

- Others 

141

215

52%

293

671

129%

621

108%

Gross profit 

386

385

0%

3,695

1,283

-65%

1,248

103%

SG&A expenses 

-141

-215

52%

-813

-627

-23%

-548

114%

EBIT 

245

171

-30%

2,883

657

-77%

700

94%

Financial income 

76

158

108%

426

451

6%

383

118%

Financial expense 

-100

-65

-35%

-426

-258

-39%

-290

89%

Net income from affiliates 

-7

71

N.M.

-8

57

N.M.

0

N.M.

Net other income 

26

-171

N.M.

17

-143

N.M.

0

N.M.

PBT 

239

164

-32%

2,891

764

-74%

793

96%

NPAT-MI 

105

75

-29%

2,031

426

-79%

503

85%

 









GPM 

47.0%

49.3%


65.8%

46.2%


47.6%


- IP 

34.1%

280.0%


67.5%

68.2%


55.5%


- UA 

40.9%

11.1%


36.1%

11.5%


11.8%


OPM 

29.9%

21.8%


51.3%

23.7%


26.7%


NPM 

12.8%

9.5%


36.1%

15.4%


19.2%


Source: KBC, Vietcap forecasts (last updated November 8, 2024) 

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