We attended IDC’s February 11 analyst meeting and our key takeaways are below:

* IP land sales: In 2024, IDC recorded IP land sales of 96.4 ha in contracts/MOUs (vs our 2024F forecast of 94 ha and the company’s full-year guidance of 145 ha), of which 31.3 ha were in Q4 2024 (vs 26.2 ha in Q1 2024, 17.1 ha in Q2 2024, and 21.8 ha in Q3 2024). The 2024 IP land sales at Huu Thanh, Phu My 2, Cau Nghin, Que Vo 2, and Phu My 2 Expansion were 33.9 ha, 18.7 ha, 18.1 ha, 16.5 ha, and 9.1 ha, respectively. 

* IP land handovers: IDC handed over 100 ha in 2024, including 10.8 ha handed over in Q4 2024. Of the 100 ha in 2024 handovers, 57 ha are from IP land sales made in 2023 and 43 ha are from new contracts in 2024. We estimate the unbilled backlog from 2024 IP land sales to be ~53 ha.

* Selling prices: The average asking price (ASPs) of IDC’s current IP projects at end-2024 remained stable QoQ at ~USD135/sqm but slightly increased vs the end-2023 ASP of ~USD129/sqm. The end-2024 ASPs of Huu Thanh, Que Vo 2, and Cau Nghin have increased to around USD161/sqm, USD150/sqm, and USD81/sqm (vs end-2023 prices of around USD148/sqm, USD119/sqm, and USD77/sqm), respectively. Additionally, while the ASPs of Phu My 2 and Phu My 2 Expansion at end-2024 have remained broadly stable at ~USD124/sqm and ~USD126/sqm, IDC has raised the quoting prices at these IPs to ~USD130-135/sqm. 

* Tan Phuoc 1 IP (total site area of 470 ha; Tien Giang Province) and Vinh Quang IP phase 1 (site area for phase 1 of 226 ha; Hai Phong Province): IDC expects to start construction for both IPs by Q3 2025G and potentially launch sales in 2026G as the company expects a smooth land clearance process. This guidance is broadly in line with our expectations as we currently forecast for Tan Phuoc 1 to start IP land sales by 2026F and for Vinh Quang IP to start from 2027F. 

* Residential segment: The Bac Chau Giang project (total includes ~60 low-rise units and 1 high-rise block; Ha Nam) has fully sold out and completed handovers for ~90% of the low-rise portions. Additionally, around 0.73 ha remains as unbilled backlog from the commercial land sales contract to Aeon in the central residential expansion project in Long An. 

* Overall, we anticipate insignificant changes to our 2025F IP land sales and handovers forecasts, pending a fuller review. Please also refer to our January 24 Earnings Flash for IDC’s Q4 2024 and full-year results.

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