• We attended IDC’s annual general meeting (AGM) on April 25. 

• Shareholders approved 2025G guidance with total revenue (including net revenue, financial income, and other income) of VND8.9tn (USD350mn; -1% YoY) and PBT of VND2.6tn (USD102mn; -13% YoY), which are lower than our expectations as they are equivalent to 92% and 84% of our respective 2025F forecasts. IDC completed 112%/81%/120% of its respective 2022/2023/2024 PBT guidance.   

• IDC guides for 2025G IP land sales of 124 ha (vs 101 ha in 2024), compared to our forecast of 140 ha.  The company recorded IP land sales of ~40 ha in contracts/MOUs in Q1 2025. Management plans to monitor the progress of trade negotiations and sales performance in the coming quarters before determining whether a revision to the guidance is necessary. 

• IDC also announced that it received investment approval in end-March 2025 for the Phu Long IP in Ninh Binh with a total site area of 415 ha.  

• Shareholders approved the FY2024 dividend plan of 50% on par value (35% in cash and 15% in stock; par value of VND10,000/share; 20% interim dividend was paid in cash), and FY2025 dividend plan of 35% on par in cash and/or stock.  

• We foresee downside risks to our forecasts for IDC following the recent reciprocal tariff announcement, as well as management’s more conservative guidance.      

Despite the potential tariff impacts, tenants continue to show interest. While tariffs may have some impact on IP land sales, IDC anticipates relatively resilient demand, supported by its diverse nationwide tenant base and an upcoming land bank (in Thai Binh, Hai Phong, Ninh Binh, and Tien Giang) targeting a broad customer mix. The company also highlights a strong net cash position further enhancing its resilience to market uncertainties. 

According to the company’s select tenant survey, 20–30% of potential clients who had shown interest but had not signed contracts have chosen to delay or temporarily pause negotiations, while the majority (70–80%) remain engaged and are continuing discussions. Among tenants who have signed MOUs or placed deposits, only 10–15% are taking a wait-and-see approach during the 90-day tariff review period, while most tenants with active contracts intend to proceed as planned. 

Dividend policy to align with land sales performance: Depending on the actual proceeds from land leasing and the capital requirements for upcoming projects, the company will decide between paying dividends in cash or stock. Management also noted that IDC may opt to retain earnings to prepare for possible market headwinds. That said, the company generally prefers to pay cash dividends and aims to maintain this approach if conditions permit.