IDC [BUY +37.9%] - Large saleable land bank to drive 2025F IP land sales recovery

- We maintain our BUY rating for IDC but trim our target price by 1.3% to VND70,600/share.

- Our lower target price is mainly due to our 2% lower aggregate 2025-28F IP cash inflow projection, partly offset by the higher net cash at end-2024.

- We slightly revise down our 2025/26F NPAT-MI forecasts by 3%/2%, respectively, mainly because of our lower sales/handover projections for the UA segment because of a lower-than-expected unbilled backlog remaining at the Bac Chau Giang UA as of end-2024.

- For 2025F, we forecast NPAT-MI to slightly increase by 4% YoY to VND2.1tn (USD81mn), mainly due to YoY higher ASP and land handovers for the IP segment while we expect residential revenue to decline YoY in the year.