- We maintain our BUY rating for IDC and raise our target price by 3% to VND58,100/share. Our higher target price is driven by (1) higher valuation for the residential segment as we factor in a plan of a stake increase in Idico Long An (developer of Huu Thanh residential project and central residential expansion project in Long An) and (2) rolling over our TP horizon to end-2024F from mid-2024F.

- We cut our 2023F NPAT-MI forecast by 41% to VND1.1tn (USD46mn; -37% YoY). This adjustment is primarily attributed to the reduction in our projected IP land sales handover for 2023F to 65 ha vs 95 ha previously, along with a decrease in residential recognition.

- We forecast 2024/25F NPAT-MI growth at 60% and 45% YoY, respectively, mainly thanks to our anticipation for a strong recovery in IP land sales handovers (100 ha in 2024F and 128 ha in 2025F) as well as the end-2023F unbilled backlog of 98 ha (per our estimates). We lower our 2024/25F NPAT-MI forecasts by 20%/6% because of lower IP land handovers expected in 2024F and our more conservative GPM assumptions in both years. 

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