HSG [MARKET PERFORM +0.9%] - Domestic resilience, export relief to support FY2027F growth

- We maintain HSG's MARKET PERFORM rating and raise our target price (TP) by 7% to VND11,100/share, vs the adjusted previous TP of VND10,400/share.

- Our higher TP mainly reflects rolling our DCF to end-FY2027, partly offset by lower core earnings forecasts. We apply a WACC of 14.4% (vs 14.3% previously) and maintain terminal growth of 1.5%.

- We cut our FY2027/28/29/30/31F core NPAT-MI forecasts by 10%/24%/40%/34%/27%, respectively, mainly reflecting lower export volume assumptions following weaker-than-expected historical performance and higher interest expenses amid elevated borrowing costs.

- Upside potential: Stronger-than-expected sales volume and spreads. Downside risks: Further export restrictions, renewed domestic competitive pressure, and higher borrowing costs.