- We maintain our BUY rating for HPG and raise our target price (TP) by 9% to VND38,000/share.

- Our higher TP reflects 8%/15%/8%/8%/7% higher 2025/26/27/28/29F NPAT-MI forecasts. This is mainly driven by (1) rolling our TP forward to mid-2026, (2) 7%/15%/15%/15%/15% higher HRC revenue as we raise ASP forecasts (while maintaining sales volume projections), following the imposition of the anti-dumping (AD) tariff against Chinese HRC (AD20), and (3) 2% higher construction steel volume forecasts for the period, as Q1 results beat expectations.

- We raise our 2025F NPAT-MI forecast by 8%, primarily driven by a 7% increase in our steel segment earnings forecast. This is supported by (1) a 3% rise in steel revenue (from both HRC and construction steel) and (2) an improved steel NPAT-MI margin of 9.1% (vs 8.8%), as we factor in the impact of AD20 on margins of the HRC segment. Another factor that contributes to the upward revision is a 64% uplift in agriculture earnings, partly offset by a 41% cut in real estate earnings, following respective stronger/weaker-than-expected Q1 2025 results.

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