- 2025-01-24T00:00:00
- Company Research
HDC reported low Q4 2024 results with revenue of VND165bn (USD6mn; +33% QoQ and -14% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND192mn (USD7.5k; vs VND13bn/USD0.5mn in Q3 2024 and VND43bn/USD1.7mn in Q4 2023), primarily due to weak property handovers and tax expenses.
In 2024, net revenue was VND546bn (USD21mn; -18% YoY; with property sales accounting for 57% of total revenue) and NPAT-MI was VND65bn (USD2.5mn; -51% YoY), completing 95% and 28% of our respective full-year forecasts. We attribute the low earnings to the absence of a stake sales recognition at the Dai Duong project, which we previously expected to be recorded in Q4 2024.
As we observe that HDC’s presales activities in 2024 were slower than our expectations, we foresee downside risk to our current 2025F NPAT-MI forecast, pending a fuller review.
Updates for presales/project development: Obtained construction permits for Ecotown Phu My - the first social housing building (390 units) in November 2024 and Dai Duong (19.6 ha) in January 2025. Gradual presales continued for The Light City Phase 1 and Ngoc Tuoc 2 projects in 2024.
HDC’s 2024 results
VND bn | Q4 | Q4 | YoY | 2023 | 2024 | YoY | 2024F | 2024 as % of 2024F |
Net revenue | 191 | 165 | -14% | 665 | 546 | -18% | 573 | 95% |
| 136 | 100 | -27% | 444 | 314 | -29% | 296 | 106% |
| 55 | 65 | 18% | 221 | 233 | 5% | 277 | 84% |
Gross profit | 98 | 64 | -35% | 298 | 220 | -26% | 171 | 129% |
| 93 | 58 | -38% | 277 | 198 | -29% | 147 | 135% |
| 5 | 6 | 21% | 21 | 23 | 10% | 25 | 91% |
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SG&A expenses | -17 | -16 | -1% | -58 | -57 | -1% | -24 | 241% |
EBIT | 82 | 48 | -42% | 240 | 163 | -32% | 148 | 111% |
Financial income | 3 | 0 | -86% | 6 | 22 | 248% | 209 | 10% |
Financial expense | -27 | -15 | -43% | -84 | -60 | -28% | -72 | 84% |
Profit from associates | 1 | -1 | N.M. | 1 | 4 | 287% | 3 | 135% |
Other gain/(loss) | 0 | -25 | N.M. | 1 | -40 | N.M. | 0 | N.M. |
PBT | 58 | 7 | -87% | 164 | 89 | -46% | 288 | 31% |
PAT | 48 | 1 | -98% | 132 | 66 | -50% | 230 | 29% |
NPAT-MI | 47 | 0 | -100% | 132 | 65 | -51% | 230 | 28% |
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Gross margin | 51.4% | 38.8% |
| 44.7% | 40.3% |
| 29.9% |
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| 68.4% | 57.7% |
| 62.4% | 63.1% |
| 49.5% |
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| 9.5% | 9.7% |
| 9.3% | 9.7% |
| 9.0% |
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SG&A as % of revenue | 8.7% | 9.9% |
| 8.7% | 10.5% |
| 4.1% |
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EBIT margin | 42.7% | 28.9% |
| 36.0% | 29.9% |
| 25.8% |
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NPAT-MI margin | 24.5% | 0.1% |
| 19.8% | 11.9% |
| 40.2% |
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Source: HDC, Vietcap forecasts (last updated August 30, 2024)
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