HDC – 2024 earnings fall short of expectations as stake sales not recorded in Q4 – Earnings Flash
  • 2025-01-24T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • HDC reported low Q4 2024 results with revenue of VND165bn (USD6mn; +33% QoQ and -14% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND192mn (USD7.5k; vs VND13bn/USD0.5mn in Q3 2024 and VND43bn/USD1.7mn in Q4 2023), primarily due to weak property handovers and tax expenses. 

  • In 2024, net revenue was VND546bn (USD21mn; -18% YoY; with property sales accounting for 57% of total revenue) and NPAT-MI was VND65bn (USD2.5mn; -51% YoY), completing 95% and 28% of our respective full-year forecasts. We attribute the low earnings to the absence of a stake sales recognition at the Dai Duong project, which we previously expected to be recorded in Q4 2024. 

  • As we observe that HDC’s presales activities in 2024 were slower than our expectations, we foresee downside risk to our current 2025F NPAT-MI forecast, pending a fuller review.  

  • Updates for presales/project development: Obtained construction permits for Ecotown Phu My - the first social housing building (390 units) in November 2024 and Dai Duong (19.6 ha) in January 2025. Gradual presales continued for The Light City Phase 1 and Ngoc Tuoc 2 projects in 2024.  

HDC’s 2024 results  

VND bn  

Q4   
   2023   

Q4    
 2024   

YoY 

2023 

2024 

YoY   

2024F   

2024 as % of 2024F   

Net revenue  

191 

165 

-14% 

665 

546 

-18% 

573 

95% 

  1. Property sales  

136 

100 

-27% 

444 

314 

-29% 

296 

106% 

  1. Other services  

55 

65 

18% 

221 

233 

5% 

277 

84% 

Gross profit  

98 

64 

-35% 

298 

220 

-26% 

171 

129% 

  1. Property sales  

93 

58 

-38% 

277 

198 

-29% 

147 

135% 

  1. Other services  

21% 

21 

23 

10% 

25 

91% 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SG&A expenses  

-17 

-16 

-1% 

-58 

-57 

-1% 

-24 

241% 

EBIT  

82 

48 

-42% 

240 

163 

-32% 

148 

111% 

Financial income  

-86% 

22 

248% 

209 

10% 

Financial expense  

-27 

-15 

-43% 

-84 

-60 

-28% 

-72 

84% 

Profit from associates  

-1 

N.M. 

287% 

135% 

Other gain/(loss) 

-25 

N.M. 

-40 

N.M. 

N.M. 

PBT  

58 

7 

-87% 

164 

89 

-46% 

288 

31% 

PAT  

48 

-98% 

132 

66 

-50% 

230 

29% 

NPAT-MI  

47 

0 

-100% 

132 

65 

-51% 

230 

28% 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross margin  

51.4% 

38.8% 

 

44.7% 

40.3% 

 

29.9% 

 

  1. Property sales  

68.4% 

57.7% 

 

62.4% 

63.1% 

 

49.5% 

 

  1. Other services  

9.5% 

9.7% 

 

9.3% 

9.7% 

 

9.0% 

 

SG&A as % of revenue  

8.7% 

9.9% 

 

8.7% 

10.5% 

 

4.1% 

 

EBIT margin  

42.7% 

28.9% 

 

36.0% 

29.9% 

 

25.8% 

 

NPAT-MI margin  

24.5% 

0.1% 

 

19.8% 

11.9% 

 

40.2% 

 

Source: HDC, Vietcap forecasts (last updated August 30, 2024)  

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