We attended HDB’s annual general meeting (AGM) on April 24. The meeting’s main agenda was to propose 2025 guidance, the bank’s growth strategy, and dividend plan. The discussion mainly focused on HDB’s assessment on tariff impacts on its business and restructuring Vikki Digital Bank (formerly Dong A Bank).  

• 2025 guidance includes profit before tax (PBT) of VND21.2tn (USD815mn; +27% YoY), credit growth of 32% YoY, funding growth (including customer deposits & valuable papers) of 27% YoY, and the NPL ratio to be kept below 2%. 2025G ROE and ROA are 26.2% and 2.15%, respectively. Overall, the 2025 profit guidance is significantly higher than our forecast of VND18.9tn (+13% YoY).
• Madame Thao (Permanent Vice Chairwoman) reaffirmed the bank’s commitment to meet the shareholder’s full-year targets. HDB has a track record of exceeding its AGM guidance by an average of 9% over the past seven years (only missing the mark in 2023 by 1%).
• HDB proposed a dividend plan of 28% charter capital for FY2024. The breakdown between cash and stock dividends has not yet been determined. 
• Under the new CI Law (effective from July 2024), as a part of enhancing the operation process, HDB (like other banks) also proposes a general action plan regarding the remedial measures in the event of early intervention, when financial issues are identified at an early stage.

Strong Q1 2025 results surpass our expectations. HDB’s preliminary Q1 2025 results are as below:

- PBT was VND5.4tn (+33% YoY; +31% QoQ), completing 25% of AGM guidance and 28% of our full-year forecast. 

- Credit growth was 2.8% and deposit growth was 6.4%, in our estimation. TOI was VND9.2tn (+19% YoY).

- CAR was more than 14.9% and ROE was 29.62%

HDB takes proactive risk management and secures strong capital base amid tariff concerns. The bank expects that strategic adaptability in diplomacy and development will help Vietnam to ease tariff tensions. HDB has already reviewed and classified its customer base according to levels of exposure and risk level, in which direct credit to exports to the US is small, accounting for less than 1.5% of total credit. In response, the bank is actively adjusting its financing structure to better support affected clients and monitoring market conditions to assess impact on its portfolio. With a capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of more than 14.9% as of Q1 2025, among the highest in the sector, HDB remains well-positioned to withstand economic shocks. Drawing from its proven abilities during the COVID-19 period, the bank expects maintaining growth. HDB also plans to rebalance its portfolio, leveraging growth in domestic consumption and public investment, and has registered VND20tn from the Government’s VND500tn credit packages for infrastructure and tech-focused enterprises.

The 2025 AGM marked the official launch of the HD Financial Group concept – a unified financial ecosystem that integrates the strengths of HDB, Vikki Digital Bank (formerly Dong A Bank), HD Saison, HD Securities, HD Insurance, HD Capital, and Dong A Money Transfer (remittance services). This aims to transition from a siloed structure to a business-segment model, leveraging 600+ sales points, 26,500 financial service locations, and a 30M+ person customer base. 

HDB believes in the successful restructuring of Vikki, supported by its financial group ecosystem. The bank began planning Vikki’s restructuring more than five years ago and initiated the process even before the official transfer, with continuous updates since. Vikki will focus on digital retail and SME banking.

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