- We increase our target price (TP) by 3% to VND30,000/share and upgrade our rating for HDB from OUTPERFORM to BUY. Our higher TP is due to (1) the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to end-2025F and (2) a 2% increase in our aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI (0%/1%/1%/5% for 2024/25/26/27/28F, respectively).

- We roughly maintain our 2024F NPAT-MI at VND12.5tn (USD498mn; +24% YoY) primarily due to (1) a 5% decrease in provision expenses that outweighs (2) a 1% decrease in TOI.

- We retain our forecast for HDS’s 2024F PBT at VND1.3tn (+97% YoY), given 9M 2024 PBT of VND906bn (+126% YoY). The company’s 2025F targets: loan growth 18%-20%; NPL ratio-7.2%; PBT growth of 15%-18%; ROE- 24%. HDS has been offering products like “Buy Now Pay Later” on the app Muadee (by HDBank), which expects to generate a good profit flow in the future.

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