- GVR announced Q2 2023 results with revenue of VND4.3tn (USD181mn; -23% YoY & +3.3% QoQ) and NPAT-MI of VND554bn (USD23mn; -48% YoY & +0.8% QoQ). The top-line YoY decline was mainly driven by revenue from the rubber and wood segments dropping -12% and -54% YoY, respectively. Meanwhile, the bottom line was dragged down YoY by an OPM contraction of around 6.7 ppts YoY.

- In H1 2023, GVR’s revenue declined 20% YoY to VND8.4tn (USD356mn) while its NPAT-MI fell 47% YoY to VND1.1tn (USD47mn), representing 35% and 34% of our respective full-year forecasts. Pending a fuller review, we see potential downside risk to our 2023F forecast as the rubber and wood segments have been more severely impacted by the global economic slowdown than our expectations.

- In H1 2023, rubber latex revenue declined 10% YoY to VND6.0tn (USD256mn), accounting for 72% of total revenue and completing 34% of our full-year forecast. Although GVR has not released a breakdown of its sales volume and average selling price (ASP), we believe the decrease in natural rubber latex revenue was primarily driven by a YoY decline in ASP. In addition, rubber exports to China — Vietnam’s largest rubber export market (accounting for 76% of Vietnam’s total rubber exports in H1 2023) — increased by 8% in terms of volume but dropped by 13% in value vs H1 2022.

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