- We raise our target price by 70% to VND29,900/share and upgrade our rating for GVR to MARKET PERFORM from UNDERPERFORM. 

- Our higher target price is mainly because we factor in ~21,000 ha to be converted to IP land (vs ~5,700 ha previously) as we expect faster and more extensive conversion of rubber land compared to our previous projections. GVR mentioned at its March 2024 EGM that ~25,000 ha can be converted into IP land based on the recently-approved masterplans of three provinces (Ba Ria – Vung Tau, Binh Phuoc, and Tay Ninh).

- We forecast NPAT-MI growth of 20%/25%/25% in 2024/25/26F, which will mainly be driven by our projections for (1) gross profit improvement when rubber consumption demand and ASP recover vs 2023, (2) an increased contribution from IP revenue, and (3) a turnaround in profit for GVR’s affiliates. We broadly maintain our 2024/25F NPAT-MI forecasts as the 2023 results were in line with our expectations.

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