- 2025-04-22T00:00:00
- Company Research
GMD announces its Q1 2025 results as follows:
- Revenue: VND1,277bn (USD50.1mn; -10% QoQ , +27% YoY ; 24% of our full-year forecast). The strong YoY result is due to a ~25% YoY increase in throughput, while the QoQ decline is due to the seasonality factor (i.e., Q4 is the high season and Q1 is the low season).
- NPAT-MI: VND403bn (USD15.8mn; +72% QoQ, -28% YoY; 27% of our full-year forecast).
- Core NPAT-MI: VND403bn (USD15.8mn; +72% QoQ, +79% YoY; 27% of our full-year forecast).
- We note that our current forecasts do not yet factor in the impact of the US reciprocal tariff.
Segment performance:
- Ports (excl. GML):
Throughput: In Q1 2025, NDV handled 355,000 TEUs (-17% QoQ; +28% YoY; 23% of our full-year forecast) and southern ports (excl. GML) handled 340,000 TEUs (-14% QoQ; +23% YoY; 27% of our full-year forecast). We attribute the strong YoY volume growth to (1) strong export momentum starting from H2 2024 that continued into Q1 2025, (2) the contribution from the Ha Nam Canal to NDV, and (3) front-loading by US importers ahead of President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement in early April.
Revenue: VND1,138bn (USD44.6mn; -11% QoQ, +35% YoY; 25% of our full-year forecast). The YoY result was strong, driven by (1) solid throughput at NDV and southern ports (excl. GML), and (2) a ~10–15% hike in non-handling fees at NDV in mid-February.
Margin: Q1 GPM trails our full-year forecast, at 44.1% vs 47.0%.
- Gemalink:
The port saw solid results, with estimated Q1 2025 net profit of VND245bn (USD9.6mn; -34% QoQ, +233% YoY; 29% of our full-year forecast). GML’s Q1 2025 throughput reached 440,000 TEUs (-1% QoQ, +24% YoY; 27% of our full-year forecast), attributed to factors (1) and (3) cited above for NDV. This result implies a profit-per-TEU of VND557,200 (USD21.9) (-33% QoQ from Q4 2024’s high; +170% YoY from Q1 2024’s low; 108% of our full-year forecast).
- Logistics:
The segment reported Q1 2025 revenue of VND139bn (USD5.5mn; +3% QoQ, -15% YoY; 18% of our full-year forecast) and GPM of 43.3% (vs our full-year forecast of 40%).
Our comments:
- NDV: We maintain our 2025F throughput forecast (as Q1 results were broadly in line with our expectations) but foresee potential downside risk for GPM (due to weaker-than-expected Q1 results), pending a fuller review.
- GML: Stronger-than-expected Q1 results. With front-loading from US importers due to the 90-day tariff reprieve, we expect Q2 volumes to increase QoQ, driving H1 2025 to outperform our current forecast. However, visibility for H2 2025 and 2026 remains limited and will hinge on the outcome of Vietnam–US trade negotiations.
At last week’s analyst meeting, GMD guided for GML’s 2025F throughput at 1.8–1.9mn TEUs (+3–9% YoY; 9–15% above our 2025F projection). Management remains confident in reaching this target, given that (1) four new non-US service lines were launched in April, reducing reliance on the US market, and (2) the bulk of cargo handled at GML (mainly furniture, apparel, footwear, tires) are orders from major brands such as Nike and Adidas. These contracts are mainly long-term and therefore should still be continued to be carried out, at least in the short term, regardless of tariff impact.
Given management’s guidance on volume growth and higher-than-expected profit per TEU in Q1 2025, we see upside to our 2025F forecast for GML, pending a fuller review. Our 2026F forecasts are also under review.
- Logistics segment: We see downside risk to our forecast, as weaker-than-expected revenue outweighs margin outperformance.
Figure 1: GMD’s Q1 2025 results
VND bn | Q1 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | QoQ | YoY | 2025F | Q1 2025 / 2025F |
Revenue | 1,006 | 1,412 | 1,277 | -10% | 27% | 5,313 | 24% |
- Port | 843 | 1,277 | 1,138 | -11% | 35% | 4,523 | 25% |
- Logistics | 163 | 135 | 139 | 3% | -15% | 790 | 18% |
Gross profit | 441 | 629 | 562 | -11% | 27% | 2,442 | 23% |
- Port | 364 | 578 | 502 | -13% | 38% | 2,126 | 24% |
- Logistics | 77 | 51 | 60 | 17% | -22% | 316 | 19% |
SG&A expenses | -149 | -270 | -212 | -22% | 42% | -847 | 25% |
EBIT | 291 | 359 | 350 | -2% | 20% | 1,595 | 22% |
Financial income | 354 | 29 | 29 | 0% | -92% | 52 | 56% |
Financial expense | -39 | -16 | -29 | 82% | -27% | -224 | 13% |
Net income from affiliates | 98 | 313 | 227 | -27% | 132% | 857 | 26% |
Others | 4 | -334 | 5 | -102% | 42% | -27 | -20% |
- Other income | 4 | 124 | 6 | -95% | 32% |
|
|
- Other expenses | -1 | -458 | 1 | -100% | -176% |
|
|
PBT | 708 | 351 | 583 | 66% | -18% | 2,254 | 26% |
NPAT | 656 | 356 | 528 | 48% | -20% | 1,978 | 27% |
MI | 97 | 121 | 125 | 3% | 29% | 468 | 27% |
NPAT-MI | 559 | 235 | 403 | 72% | -28% | 1,510 | 27% |
Core NPAT-MI* | 226 | 235 | 403 | 72% | 79% | 1,510 | 27% |
GPM | 43.8% | 44.6% | 44.0% |
|
| 46.0% |
|
- Port | 43.2% | 45.2% | 44.1% |
|
| 47.0% |
|
- Logistics | 47.3% | 38.1% | 43.3% |
|
| 40.0% |
|
SG&A/revenue | 14.9% | 19.1% | 16.6% |
|
| 15.9% |
|
EBIT margin | 29.0% | 25.4% | 27.4% |
|
| 30.0% |
|
NPAT-MI margin | 55.6% | 16.6% | 31.6% |
|
| 28.4% |
|
Core NPAT-MI margin* | 22.5% | 16.6% | 31.6% |
|
| 28.4% |
|
Source: GMD, Vietcap. *Note: Core NPAT-MI excludes financial gains from divestments of Nam Hai Port in Q1 2024.
Figure 2: GMD’s Q1 2025 throughput results
‘000 TEUs | Q1 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | QoQ | YoY | 2025F | Q1 2025 / 2025F |
Nam Dinh Vu | 277 | 430 | 355 | -17% | 28% | 1,549 | 23% |
Gemalink | 355 | 444 | 440 | -1% | 24% | 1,656 | 27% |
Other southern ports | 276 | 395 | 340 | -14% | 23% | 1,278 | 27% |
Total | 908 | 1,269 | 1,135 | -11% | 25% | 4,483 | 25% |
Source: GMD, Vietcap
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