GMD - Q2 core business continues strong performance on solid throughput recovery - Earnings Flash
  • 2024-07-31T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • GMD announced its H1 2024 results with net revenue of VND2.2tn (USD85.8mn; +21% YoY; 51% of our 2024F forecast) and NPAT-MI of VND863bn (USD33.8mn; -53% YoY; 56% of our 2024F forecast). Excluding the financial gains from divestments, H1 core NPAT-MI reached VND529bn (USD20.7mn; +39% YoY; 42% of our 2024F forecast). In Q2 2024, net revenue was VND1.2tn (USD46.3mn; +17% QoQ, +29% YoY), NPAT-MI was VND303bn (USD11.9mn; -46% QoQ, -82% YoY), and core NPAT-MI was also VND303bn (USD11.9mn; +34% QoQ, +70% YoY).
  • Similar to Q1 2024, strong Q2 results of the core business continued to be driven by solid throughput performance as trading activities recovered. In Q2 2024, the Nam Dinh Vu port’s throughput was 305,000 TEUs (+12% YoY, +10% QoQ) and Gemalink’s throughput was 454,000 TEUs (+91% YoY, +28% QoQ). As such, in H1 2024, the northern port recorded 582,000 TEUs (+13% YoY; 47% of our 2024F forecast of 1.2 million TEUs), while Gemalink recorded 810,000 TEUs (+100% YoY; 54% of our 2024F forecast of 1.5 million TEUs).
  • Currently, we expect H2 2024 trading activities to recover stronger vs H1. As such, H1 2024 revenue and core NPAT-MI were broadly in line with our expectations, fulfilling 51% and 42% of our respective forecasts. Therefore, we see insignificant change to our 2024F forecast for core business, pending a fuller review. However, as noted in our latest AGM note, management’s view towards the H2 2024 outlook is more conservative vs ours due to their concerns over global geopolitical risks and cautious inventory restocking in key export markets.

Segment performances:

  • Ports: GMD’s Q2 consolidated port revenue grew 17% QoQ and 44% YoY to VND985bn (USD38.6mn), making H1 port revenue surge 37% YoY and fulfilling 55% of our full-year forecast. The segment’s GPM continued expanding to 44.7% from 43.2% in Q1 2024 and 40.0% in Q4 2023 - the lowest quarterly level in 2023.
  • Gemalink: We estimate that Gemalink reported Q2 2024 net profit of VND166bn (USD6.5mn), bringing H1 net profit to VND239bn (USD9.4mn), fulfilling 72% of our 2024F forecast. Q2 net profit was the third consecutive profitable quarter for Gemalink after four quarters of losses during Q4 2022 – Q3 2023, and also the strongest quarterly level seen since Q1 2022. We attribute the deep-sea port’s strong performance to (1) robust throughput recovery, with Q2 2024 throughput of 454,000 TEUs (+91% YoY, +28% QoQ) and H1 2024 throughput of 810,000 TEUs (+100% YoY; 54% of our 2024F forecast), and (2) Gemalink being able to apply tariff rates higher than the new higher floor rates set by Circular 39 due to its strong competitive advantage in the Cai Mep Thi Vai area.
  • Logistics: The performance of the logistics segment came in weaker-than-expected, with Q2 revenue of VND196bn (USD7.7mn; +20% QoQ, -15% YoY) and H1 revenue of VND358bn (USD14mn; -25% YoY; 38% of our 2024F forecast). Although the segment’s GPM expanded to 52.1% in Q2 2024 from 47.3% in Q1 2024 and 46.2% in Q2 2023, H1 2024 GPM dropped YoY to 49.9% from H1 2023’s 52.8%. 

 GMD’s H1 2024 results

VNDbn

Q2 2023

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

QoQ

YoY

H1 2023

H1 2024

YoY

2024F

H1 as % of 2024F

Revenue

912

1,006

1,181

17%

29%

1,814

2,187

21%

4,263

51%

- Port

683

843

985

17%

44%

1,338

1,828

37%

3,315

55%

- Logistics

229

163

196

20%

-15%

476

358

-25%

949

38%

Gross profit

431

441

542

23%

26%

857

983

15%

1,971

50%

- Port

325

364

440

21%

35%

606

804

33%

1,525

53%

Logistics

106

77

102

32%

-4%

252

179

-29%

446

40%

SG&A expenses

-155

-149

-201

35%

30%

-281

-351

25%

-669

52%

EBIT

276

291

341

17%

23%

576

632

10%

1,301

49%

Financial income

1,863

354

28

-92%

-98%

1,884

382

-80%

372

103%

Financial expense

-31

-39

-46

18%

48%

-71

-85

20%

-175

48%

Net income from affiliates

58

98

183

87%

216%

79

281

254%

551

51%

Others

12

4

5

44%

-53%

17

9

-47%

-21

-43%

PBT

2,178

708

511

-28%

-77%

2,486

1,219

-51%

2,029

60%

NPAT

1,711

656

418

-36%

-76%

1,966

1,074

-45%

1,818

59%

MI

65

97

115

19%

76%

118

211

79%

291

73%

NPAT-MI

1,646

559

303

-46%

-82%

1,848

863

-53%

1,527

56%

Core NPAT-MI*

179

226

303

34%

70%

381

529

39%

1,272

42%

GPM

47.2%

43.8%

45.9%

 

 

47.3%

45.0%

 

46.2%

 

- Port

47.6%

43.2%

44.7%

 

 

45.3%

44.0%

 

46.0%

 

- Logistics

46.2%

47.3%

52.1%

 

 

52.8%

49.9%

 

47.0%

 

SG&A/revenue

17.0%

14.9%

17.0%

 

 

15.5%

16.0%

 

15.7%

 

EBIT margin

30.3%

29.0%

28.8%

 

 

31.8%

28.9%

 

30.5%

 

NPAT-MI margin

180.5%

55.6%

25.7%

 

 

101.9%

39.4%

 

35.8%

 

Core NPAT-MI margin*

19.6%

22.5%

25.7%

 

 

21.0%

24.2%

 

29.8%

 

Source: GMD, Vietcap. *Note: Core NPAT-MI excludes financial gains from divestments of Nam Hai Dinh Vu port in Q2 2023 and Nam Hai port in Q1 2024.

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