- We maintain GMD’s OUTPERFORM rating and cut target price (TP) by 10% to VND59,700/share.

- Our TP cut applies to our base case forecast, which assumes a 50% US volume loss at all of GMD’s ports. Currently, US-bound cargo makes up 20% of throughput at southern ports (incl. GML) and 10% at NDV, resulting in a 17% total volume exposure to the US.

- Our lower TP is mainly due to (1) a 10% reduction in our core business valuation and (2) 21% lower valuation for GML. These are partly offset by (1) rolling our TP to mid-2026 and (2) a ~15% higher valuation for GMD’s logistics affiliates (CJ Gemadept Logistics  & Shipping) and other investments following Q1 results.

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