GMD - Operating results align with forecasts, but core NPAT-MI trails due to abnormal Q4 surges in other expenses - Earnings Flash
  • 2025-02-03T00:00:00
  • Company Research

GMD announced its 2024 results with details as follows: 

Full-year results: 

  • Net revenue: VND4.8tn (USD189.9mn; +26% YoY; 103% of our 2024F forecast) 

  • NPAT-MI: VND1.5tn (USD57.3mn; -35% YoY; 86% of our 2024F forecast) 

  • Core NPAT-MI: VND1.1tn (USD44.2mn; +50% YoY; 83% of our 2024F forecast) 

Q4 results: 

  • Net revenue: VND1.4tn (USD55.5mn; +12% QoQ; +37% YoY) 

  • NPAT-MI: VND235bn (USD9.2mn; -30% QoQ; +104% YoY) 

  • Core NPAT-MI: VND235bn (USD9.2mn; -30% QoQ; +104% YoY) 

Core NPAT-MI fell short of projections due to abnormal increases in “other expenses” during Q4. The company reported a significant rise in Q4 “other expenses” to ~VND460bn (USD18mn; +4.7x QoQ; +6.9x YoY), which we think is likely linked to rubber plantations which booked a ~VND250bn (USD9.8mn) in expenses during the quarter (we look at the QoQ change in “Other increases/(decreases)” of rubber plantations in CIP) and provision in short-term payables (recorded in current liabilities) which increased ~VND150bn (USD5.9mn) QoQ. This adversely impacted bottom-line performance, leading full-year core NPAT-MI to reach only 83% of our forecast, despite broadly in-line EBIT and net income from affiliates results which achieve 95% and 106% of our 2024F forecasts, respectively.  

Segment performance: 

  • Ports (excluding Gemalink): GMD’s Q4 consolidated port revenue grew 17% QoQ and 55% YoY to VND1.3tn (USD50.2mn), making 2024 port revenue surge 43% YoY, fulfilling 104% of our full-year forecast, in line with our expectation. The segment’s Q4 GPM eased to 45.2% from Q3’s high base of 53.2%. 

  • Gemalink: The sea port’s result continued to beat our forecast, with estimated Q4 2024 net profit of VND352bn (USD13.8mn; +50% QoQ; +216% YoY), bringing full-year net profit to VND825bn (USD32.4mn; +30x YoY), fulfilling 113% of our 2024F forecast. Q4 net profit was the strongest quarterly level seen since Q1 2022. We attribute the deep-sea port’s strong QoQ performance to year-end high season for trading activities and short-term positive impact from Mr. Trump’s expected tariffs which prompted US importers to pull forward orders from China. We think the stronger-than-expected performance of the port likely stems from stronger-than-expected ASP/margin expansion as the actual result of 1.75+mn TEUs (per our latest communication with the company) was broadly in line with our 2024F forecast of 1.8mn TEUs (+76% YoY; 120% utilization rate). 

  • Logistics: The segment reported Q4 2024 revenue of VND135bn (USD5.3mn; -20% QoQ, -36% YoY) and gross profit of ~VND50bn (USD2.0mn; marking a turnaround from Q3’s one-off loss of VND1bn; -47% YoY). We note that the segment reported a Q3 one-off gross loss due to an incident related to one of its vessels. For 2024, revenue and gross profit were in line with our expectations, at ~VND630bn (USD24.8mn; -30% YoY; 100% of our 2024F forecast) and ~VND200bn (USD24.8mn; -59% YoY; 104% of our 2024F forecast), respectively. 

Overall, we foresee insignificant changes to our forecasts for the ports and logistics segment due to broadly in-line 2024 results, and upside potential to our forecast for Gemalink due to stronger-than-expected 2024 result, pending a fuller review. 

GMD’s 2024 results 

VNDbn 

Q4 2023 

Q3 2024 

Q4 2024 

QoQ 

YoY 

2023 

2024 

YoY 

2024F 

2024A / 2024F 

Revenue 

1,034 

1,264 

1,412 

12% 

37% 

3,846 

4,832 

26% 

4,670 

103% 

- Port 

825 

1,095 

1,277 

17% 

55% 

2,909 

4,201 

44% 

4,038 

104% 

- Logistics 

209 

169 

135 

-20% 

-36% 

937 

632 

-33% 

632 

100% 

Gross profit 

426 

581 

629 

8% 

48% 

1,778 

2,162 

22% 

2,168 

100% 

- Port 

330 

583 

578 

-1% 

75% 

1,638 

1,965 

20% 

1,979 

99% 

- Logistics 

96 

-1 

51 

N.M. 

-47% 

508 

197 

-61% 

190 

104% 

SG&A expenses 

-276 

-182 

-270 

48% 

-2% 

-661 

-816 

23% 

-760 

107% 

EBIT 

150 

399 

359 

-10% 

140% 

1,117 

1,345 

21% 

1,409 

95% 

Financial income 

24 

29 

532% 

21% 

1,941 

418 

-78% 

403 

104% 

Financial expense 

-25 

-50 

-16 

-68% 

-37% 

-155 

-150 

-3% 

-180 

83% 

Net income from affiliates 

139 

222 

313 

41% 

125% 

274 

816 

197% 

766 

106% 

Others 

-35 

-75 

-334 

343% 

862% 

-30 

-349 

1082% 

-23 

1518% 

- Other income 

23 

124 

2095% 

432% 

55 

253 

361% 

  

  

- Other expenses 

-58 

-81 

-458 

465% 

689% 

-84 

-611 

624% 

  

  

PBT 

253 

501 

351 

-30% 

39% 

3,147 

2,080 

-34% 

2,374 

88% 

NPAT 

192 

448 

356 

-21% 

86% 

2,534 

1,905 

-25% 

2,128 

90% 

MI 

77 

113 

121 

7% 

58% 

283 

446 

57% 

435 

102% 

NPAT-MI 

115 

335 

235 

-30% 

104% 

2,251 

1,459 

-35% 

1,693 

86% 

Core NPAT-MI* 

115 

335 

235 

-30% 

104% 

750 

1,126 

50% 

1,359 

83% 

GPM 

41.2% 

46.0% 

44.6% 

  

  

46.2% 

44.7% 

  

46.4% 

  

- Port 

40.0% 

53.2% 

45.2% 

  

  

56.3% 

46.8% 

  

49.0% 

  

- Logistics 

45.9% 

-0.8% 

38.1% 

  

  

54.2% 

31.2% 

  

30.0% 

  

SG&A/revenue 

26.7% 

14.4% 

19.1% 

  

  

17.2% 

16.9% 

  

16.3% 

  

EBIT margin 

14.5% 

31.6% 

25.4% 

  

  

29.0% 

27.8% 

  

30.2% 

  

NPAT-MI margin 

11.1% 

26.5% 

16.6% 

  

  

58.5% 

30.2% 

  

36.2% 

  

Core NPAT-MI margin* 

11.1% 

26.5% 

16.6% 

  

  

19.5% 

23.3% 

  

29.1% 

  

Source: GMD, Vietcap. *Note: Core NPAT-MI excludes financial gains from divestments of Nam Hai Dinh Vu port in Q2 2023 and Nam Hai port in Q1 2024. 

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