- 2025-02-03T00:00:00
- Company Research
GMD announced its 2024 results with details as follows:
Full-year results:
Net revenue: VND4.8tn (USD189.9mn; +26% YoY; 103% of our 2024F forecast)
NPAT-MI: VND1.5tn (USD57.3mn; -35% YoY; 86% of our 2024F forecast)
Core NPAT-MI: VND1.1tn (USD44.2mn; +50% YoY; 83% of our 2024F forecast)
Q4 results:
Net revenue: VND1.4tn (USD55.5mn; +12% QoQ; +37% YoY)
NPAT-MI: VND235bn (USD9.2mn; -30% QoQ; +104% YoY)
Core NPAT-MI: VND235bn (USD9.2mn; -30% QoQ; +104% YoY)
Core NPAT-MI fell short of projections due to abnormal increases in “other expenses” during Q4. The company reported a significant rise in Q4 “other expenses” to ~VND460bn (USD18mn; +4.7x QoQ; +6.9x YoY), which we think is likely linked to rubber plantations which booked a ~VND250bn (USD9.8mn) in expenses during the quarter (we look at the QoQ change in “Other increases/(decreases)” of rubber plantations in CIP) and provision in short-term payables (recorded in current liabilities) which increased ~VND150bn (USD5.9mn) QoQ. This adversely impacted bottom-line performance, leading full-year core NPAT-MI to reach only 83% of our forecast, despite broadly in-line EBIT and net income from affiliates results which achieve 95% and 106% of our 2024F forecasts, respectively.
Segment performance:
Ports (excluding Gemalink): GMD’s Q4 consolidated port revenue grew 17% QoQ and 55% YoY to VND1.3tn (USD50.2mn), making 2024 port revenue surge 43% YoY, fulfilling 104% of our full-year forecast, in line with our expectation. The segment’s Q4 GPM eased to 45.2% from Q3’s high base of 53.2%.
Gemalink: The sea port’s result continued to beat our forecast, with estimated Q4 2024 net profit of VND352bn (USD13.8mn; +50% QoQ; +216% YoY), bringing full-year net profit to VND825bn (USD32.4mn; +30x YoY), fulfilling 113% of our 2024F forecast. Q4 net profit was the strongest quarterly level seen since Q1 2022. We attribute the deep-sea port’s strong QoQ performance to year-end high season for trading activities and short-term positive impact from Mr. Trump’s expected tariffs which prompted US importers to pull forward orders from China. We think the stronger-than-expected performance of the port likely stems from stronger-than-expected ASP/margin expansion as the actual result of 1.75+mn TEUs (per our latest communication with the company) was broadly in line with our 2024F forecast of 1.8mn TEUs (+76% YoY; 120% utilization rate).
Logistics: The segment reported Q4 2024 revenue of VND135bn (USD5.3mn; -20% QoQ, -36% YoY) and gross profit of ~VND50bn (USD2.0mn; marking a turnaround from Q3’s one-off loss of VND1bn; -47% YoY). We note that the segment reported a Q3 one-off gross loss due to an incident related to one of its vessels. For 2024, revenue and gross profit were in line with our expectations, at ~VND630bn (USD24.8mn; -30% YoY; 100% of our 2024F forecast) and ~VND200bn (USD24.8mn; -59% YoY; 104% of our 2024F forecast), respectively.
Overall, we foresee insignificant changes to our forecasts for the ports and logistics segment due to broadly in-line 2024 results, and upside potential to our forecast for Gemalink due to stronger-than-expected 2024 result, pending a fuller review.
GMD’s 2024 results
VNDbn | Q4 2023 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | QoQ | YoY | 2023 | 2024 | YoY | 2024F | 2024A / 2024F |
Revenue | 1,034 | 1,264 | 1,412 | 12% | 37% | 3,846 | 4,832 | 26% | 4,670 | 103% |
- Port | 825 | 1,095 | 1,277 | 17% | 55% | 2,909 | 4,201 | 44% | 4,038 | 104% |
- Logistics | 209 | 169 | 135 | -20% | -36% | 937 | 632 | -33% | 632 | 100% |
Gross profit | 426 | 581 | 629 | 8% | 48% | 1,778 | 2,162 | 22% | 2,168 | 100% |
- Port | 330 | 583 | 578 | -1% | 75% | 1,638 | 1,965 | 20% | 1,979 | 99% |
- Logistics | 96 | -1 | 51 | N.M. | -47% | 508 | 197 | -61% | 190 | 104% |
SG&A expenses | -276 | -182 | -270 | 48% | -2% | -661 | -816 | 23% | -760 | 107% |
EBIT | 150 | 399 | 359 | -10% | 140% | 1,117 | 1,345 | 21% | 1,409 | 95% |
Financial income | 24 | 5 | 29 | 532% | 21% | 1,941 | 418 | -78% | 403 | 104% |
Financial expense | -25 | -50 | -16 | -68% | -37% | -155 | -150 | -3% | -180 | 83% |
Net income from affiliates | 139 | 222 | 313 | 41% | 125% | 274 | 816 | 197% | 766 | 106% |
Others | -35 | -75 | -334 | 343% | 862% | -30 | -349 | 1082% | -23 | 1518% |
- Other income | 23 | 6 | 124 | 2095% | 432% | 55 | 253 | 361% |
|
|
- Other expenses | -58 | -81 | -458 | 465% | 689% | -84 | -611 | 624% |
|
|
PBT | 253 | 501 | 351 | -30% | 39% | 3,147 | 2,080 | -34% | 2,374 | 88% |
NPAT | 192 | 448 | 356 | -21% | 86% | 2,534 | 1,905 | -25% | 2,128 | 90% |
MI | 77 | 113 | 121 | 7% | 58% | 283 | 446 | 57% | 435 | 102% |
NPAT-MI | 115 | 335 | 235 | -30% | 104% | 2,251 | 1,459 | -35% | 1,693 | 86% |
Core NPAT-MI* | 115 | 335 | 235 | -30% | 104% | 750 | 1,126 | 50% | 1,359 | 83% |
GPM | 41.2% | 46.0% | 44.6% |
|
| 46.2% | 44.7% |
| 46.4% |
|
- Port | 40.0% | 53.2% | 45.2% |
|
| 56.3% | 46.8% |
| 49.0% |
|
- Logistics | 45.9% | -0.8% | 38.1% |
|
| 54.2% | 31.2% |
| 30.0% |
|
SG&A/revenue | 26.7% | 14.4% | 19.1% |
|
| 17.2% | 16.9% |
| 16.3% |
|
EBIT margin | 14.5% | 31.6% | 25.4% |
|
| 29.0% | 27.8% |
| 30.2% |
|
NPAT-MI margin | 11.1% | 26.5% | 16.6% |
|
| 58.5% | 30.2% |
| 36.2% |
|
Core NPAT-MI margin* | 11.1% | 26.5% | 16.6% |
|
| 19.5% | 23.3% |
| 29.1% |
|
Source: GMD, Vietcap. *Note: Core NPAT-MI excludes financial gains from divestments of Nam Hai Dinh Vu port in Q2 2023 and Nam Hai port in Q1 2024.
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