- 2025-01-25T00:00:00
- Company Research
2024: Revenue was VND33.8tn (USD1.3bn, +13% YoY; 106% of 2024F), and reported NPAT-MI was VND1,624bn (USD64mn, 5x YoY; 138% of 2024F).
Revenue growth was driven by 30% higher YoY electrical equipment sales, outweighing (1) 11%/5% YoY lower revenue from IP leasing (24% YoY lower land sales) and construction materials, and (2) a 31% YoY decrease in utilities following power divestment in Q2.
Reported NPAT-MI surged ~5x YoY due to (1) sales/GPM expansion across major segments including electrical equipment, IP leasing, and construction materials, (2) blended GPM expansion by 1.7 ppts to 20.0%, and (3) 3x YoY financial income (due to a VND996bn gain from power portfolio divestment in Q2). This beats our earnings forecast due to outperforming earnings in both VGC (higher IP ASP, stronger building glass recovery) and GEE (stronger-than-expected sales/GPM expansion in CADIVI).
Core NPAT-MI grew 56% YoY.
Q4 2024: Revenue was VND10.1tn (USD398mn, +25% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI was VND567bn (USD22mn) vs a loss of VND21bn (USD1mn) in Q4 2023.
Sales grew YoY across major segments, including electrical equipment (+24% YoY), IP leasing (+67% YoY), and construction materials (+7% YoY).
Turnaround in reported NPAT-MI was due to (1) GPM expansion YoY (and QoQ) across segments, (2) a VND90bn investment gain (vs none in Q4 2023), (3) lower interest expenses, and (4) 6x YoY profit from JVs.
We see upside potential to our 2025F core/reported NPAT-MI forecasts (VND735bn, USD29mn, -37%YoY) due to potential stronger-than-expected core earnings from both GEE and VGC, pending further review. We currently have a BUY rating for GEX with a target price of VND23,600/share.
GEX’s 2024 results
VND bn | Q4 2023 | Q4 2024 | YoY | 2023 | 2024 | YoY | % of Vietcap 2024F |
Revenue | 8,105 | 10,142 | 25% | 29,998 | 33,759 | 13% | 105% |
Electrical equipment | 4,931 | 6,097 | 24% | 15,994 | 20,712 | 30% | 108% |
Utilities (power & water) | 469 | 259 | -45% | 1,656 | 1,148 | -31% | 94% |
Construction materials | 2,234 | 2,394 | 7% | 8,070 | 7,697 | -5% | 103% |
IP leasing & services | 762 | 1,274 | 67% | 4,478 | 3,963 | -11% | 105% |
Real estate sales | 22 | 84 | 278% | 66 | 190 | 190% | 63% |
Others | -313 | 34 | N.M. | -265 | 49 | -118% | 49% |
Gross profit | 1,158 | 2,410 | 108% | 5,509 | 6,766 | 23% | 125% |
Electrical equipment | 682 | 1,051 | 54% | 1,878 | 2,923 | 56% | 137% |
Utilities (power & water) | 197 | 90 | -54% | 667 | 366 | -45% | 81% |
Construction materials | 308 | 466 | 51% | 1,094 | 1,168 | 7% | 159% |
IP leasing & services | 433 | 759 | 75% | 2,139 | 2,232 | 4% | 113% |
Real estate sales | -158 | 26 | N.M. | 17 | 54 | 211% | 71% |
Others | -304 | 18 | N.M. | -288 | 24 | N.M. | 85% |
Selling exp | -312 | -421 | 35% | -1,141 | -1,274 | 12% | 115% |
G&A | -519 | -602 | 16% | -1,575 | -1,765 | 12% | 114% |
In which: Goodwill amortization | -52 | -52 | 0% | -208 | -208 | 0% | 100% |
Operating profit | 326 | 1,387 | 325% | 2,794 | 3,727 | 33% | 136% |
Financial income | 68 | 215 | 217% | 450 | 1,497 | 233% | 103% |
Interest income | 26 | 61 | 136% | 179 | 182 | 1% | 84% |
FX gain | 23 | 35 | 52% | 42 | 104 | 147% | 247% |
Gain from securities investment | 6 | 16 | 178% | 155 | 134 | -14% | 134% |
Others | 13 | 103 | 672% | 42 | 1,078 | 2482% | 98% |
Financial expense | -415 | -377 | -9% | -1,889 | -1,690 | -11% | 120% |
Interest expense | -326 | -257 | -21% | -1,379 | -1,077 | -22% | 103% |
FX loss | -10 | -17 | 72% | -144 | -117 | -18% | 135% |
Loss from securities investment | -13 | -50 | 295% | -41 | -60 | 45% | N.M. |
Others | -66 | -53 | -20% | -325 | -436 | 34% | 160% |
Income from JVs | 13 | 74 | 479% | 61 | 37 | -39% | 794% |
Other income | 17 | 48 | 184% | -18 | 47 | N.M. | N.M. |
Profit before tax | 9 | 1,346 | 15173% | 1,397 | 3,616 | 159% | 129% |
NPAT before MI | -80 | 1,014 | N.M. | 864 | 2,667 | 209% | 127% |
Minorities interest | 60 | -447 | N.M. | -534 | -1,043 | 95% | 112% |
NPAT-MI, reported | -21 | 567 | N.M. | 330 | 1,624 | 392% | 138% |
NPAT-MI, core (*) | -21 | 562 | N.M. | 668 | 1,045 | 56% | 214% |
Source: GEX, Vietcap, (*) Adjusted for one-off items and goodwill amortization expenses
VGC: Both IP and construction materials segment beat our 2024F PBT, upside potential for 2025F PBT
2024: revenue of VND11.9tn (USD469mn, -10% YoY, 103% of full-year forecast), NPAT-MI of VND1,105bn (USD44mn, -9% YoY, 128% of 2024F).
Revenue declined 10% YoY mainly due to 22% YoY fall in IP segment (estimated land sales of 130 ha, -24% YoY). However IP’s GPM improved signficiantly by 10% to 57% due to growing ASP and construction materials’ GPM rose by 120 bps to 15.3%, these made gross profit (GP) to be flat YoY. NPAT-MI declined 9% YoY due to higher minorities interests.
2024 NPAT-MI beats our forecast due to higher-than-expected GPM in (1) IP (driven by outperformed ASP in Phu Ha IP) and (2) construction material (building glasses turned to profit from losses in 2023). These outweigh lower-than-expected IP land sales of 130 ha (vs forecast of 139 ha, mainly due to delays in tenant rental decisions following uncertainties regarding Trump administration’s tariff policies.
Q4 2024: revenue of VND3.7tn (USD147mn, +23% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND536bn (USD21mn, +28x YoY from low base). Revenue growth was driven by (1) 48% YoY IP sales growth (estimated land sales of 45 ha, 3x YoY), and (2) 14% YoY growth in construction materials. Blended GPM significantly improved by 14.8% to 33.5%, driven by better IP and construction material (building glasses turnaround from losses in Q4 2023).
*We see upside potential to our 2025 PBT forecast (VND2.0tn, USD79mn, +24% YoY) due to strong performance of construction material segment, pending a fuller review. VGC also guides 2025 PBT of VND1.7tn (+57% YoY vs 2024G).
*We currently estimate VGC’s fair value of VND51,400/share.
VGC’s 2024 results
VND bn | Q4 2023 | Q4 2024 | YoY | 2023 | 2024 | YoY | % of Vietcap 2024F |
Revenue | 3,020 | 3,728 | 23% | 13,194 | 11,913 | -10% | 103% |
IP land sales & services | 858 | 1,274 | 48% | 5,130 | 4,009 | -22% | 107% |
Residential estate | 57 | 84 | 47% | 100 | 190 | 90% | 63% |
Construction materials | 2,075 | 2,365 | 14% | 7,916 | 7,702 | -3% | 103% |
Others | 30 | 5 | -82% | 48 | 11 | -76% | N.M. |
Gross profit | 565 | 1,249 | 121% | 3,519 | 3,514 | 0% | 126% |
IP land sales & services | 382 | 807 | 111% | 2,368 | 2,277 | -4% | 115% |
Residential estate | 15 | 26 | 69% | 28 | 54 | 93% | 71% |
Construction materials | 145 | 414 | 185% | 1,111 | 1,176 | 6% | 160% |
Others | 22 | 3 | -88% | 12 | 8 | -32% | N.M. |
Selling exp | -210 | -293 | 40% | -812 | -858 | 6% | 120% |
G&A | -267 | -219 | -18% | -756 | -745 | -2% | 108% |
Operating profit | 88 | 738 | 737% | 1,951 | 1,912 | -2% | 138% |
Financial income | 6 | 24 | 339% | 61 | 76 | 25% | 137% |
Financial expense | -89 | -79 | -11% | -381 | -310 | -19% | 102% |
Interest expense | -115 | -68 | -41% | -348 | -269 | -23% | 94% |
Income from JVs | -16 | 0 | N.M. | -36 | -75 | N.M | N.M. |
Other income | 25 | 45 | 80% | 8 | 33 | 320% | N.M. |
Profit before tax | 13 | 728 | 5338% | 1,602 | 1,636 | 2% | 144% |
NPAT before MI | -49 | 548 | N.M. | 1,162 | 1,190 | 2% | 131% |
Minorities interest | 67 | -12 | N.M. | 56 | -85 | N.M. | 185% |
NPAT-MI, reported | 18 | 536 | 2827% | 1,218 | 1,105 | -9% | 128% |
Source: VGC, Vietcap.
GEE: Substantial sales and margin expansions in electrical equipment, upside evident for 2025F NPAT
2024: revenue of VND21.1tn (USD831mn, +27% YoY, 109% of full-year forecast) and NPAT-MI of VND1,588bn (USD63mn, 2.1x YoY, 150% of full-year forecast).
Revenue growth was boosted by 31% YoY sales expansion from electrical equipments, mainly driven by CAV while power revenue fell by ~50% YoY following solar farm divestment in Q2 2024.
NPAT-MI doubled YoY and beats our forecasts mainly due to stronger-than-expected electrical equipment sales and GPM expansions, driving blended GPM up 2.3-ppts YoY to 14.5% (vs our projected 11.6%). This is driven by strong CAV performance and improvement across other subsidiaries.
Q4 2024: revenue of VND6.5tn (USD255mn, +32% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND586bn (USD23mn, 5.4x YoY). Substantial earnings growth was driven by (1) strong electrical equipment, and (2) 5x YoY financial income due to no divestment loss (vs VND94bn loss in Q4 2023).
Song Bung 4A hydropower divestment has not been completed as waiting approval from government authorities. We expect this to finish in 2025 (vs Q4 2024 previously) with estimated PBT gain of ~VND150bn.
We see upside potential for our 2025F NPAT (VND796bn, USD31mn, -25% YoY) due to (1) stronger-than-expected electrical equipment performance, and (2) Song Bung 4A divestment gain recognition, pending a fuller review.
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