GEX - Reported/Core NPAT-MI exceed forecasts by 38%/2x on strong VGC, GEE core earnings - Earnings Flash
  • 2025-01-25T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • 2024: Revenue was VND33.8tn (USD1.3bn, +13% YoY; 106% of 2024F), and reported NPAT-MI was VND1,624bn (USD64mn, 5x YoY; 138% of 2024F).  

  • Revenue growth was driven by 30% higher YoY electrical equipment sales, outweighing (1) 11%/5% YoY lower revenue from IP leasing (24% YoY lower land sales) and construction materials, and (2) a 31% YoY decrease in utilities following power divestment in Q2. 

  • Reported NPAT-MI surged ~5x YoY due to (1) sales/GPM expansion across major segments including electrical equipment, IP leasing, and construction materials, (2) blended GPM expansion by 1.7 ppts to 20.0%, and (3) 3x YoY financial income (due to a VND996bn gain from power portfolio divestment in Q2). This beats our earnings forecast due to outperforming earnings in both VGC (higher IP ASP, stronger building glass recovery) and GEE (stronger-than-expected sales/GPM expansion in CADIVI). 

  • Core NPAT-MI grew 56% YoY. 

  • Q4 2024: Revenue was VND10.1tn (USD398mn, +25% YoY) and reported NPAT-MI was VND567bn (USD22mn) vs a loss of VND21bn (USD1mn) in Q4 2023.  

  • Sales grew YoY across major segments, including electrical equipment (+24% YoY), IP leasing (+67% YoY), and construction materials (+7% YoY).  

  • Turnaround in reported NPAT-MI was due to (1) GPM expansion YoY (and QoQ) across segments, (2) a VND90bn investment gain (vs none in Q4 2023), (3) lower interest expenses, and (4) 6x YoY profit from JVs. 

  • We see upside potential to our 2025F core/reported NPAT-MI forecasts (VND735bn, USD29mn, -37%YoY) due to potential stronger-than-expected core earnings from both GEE and VGC, pending further review. We currently have a BUY rating for GEX with a target price of VND23,600/share. 

GEX’s 2024 results  

VND bn 

Q4 2023 

 Q4 2024 

YoY 

2023 

2024 

YoY 

% of Vietcap 2024F 

Revenue 

8,105 

10,142 

25% 

29,998 

33,759 

13% 

105% 

   Electrical equipment 

4,931 

6,097 

24% 

15,994 

20,712 

30% 

108% 

   Utilities (power & water) 

469 

259 

-45% 

1,656 

1,148 

-31% 

94% 

   Construction materials 

2,234 

2,394 

7% 

8,070 

7,697 

-5% 

103% 

   IP leasing & services 

762 

1,274 

67% 

4,478 

3,963 

-11% 

105% 

   Real estate sales 

22 

84 

278% 

66 

190 

190% 

63% 

   Others 

-313 

34 

N.M. 

-265 

49 

-118% 

49% 

Gross profit 

1,158 

2,410 

108% 

5,509 

6,766 

23% 

125% 

   Electrical equipment 

682 

1,051 

54% 

1,878 

2,923 

56% 

137% 

   Utilities (power & water) 

197 

90 

-54% 

667 

366 

-45% 

81% 

   Construction materials 

308 

466 

51% 

1,094 

1,168 

7% 

159% 

    IP leasing & services 

433 

759 

75% 

2,139 

2,232 

4% 

113% 

   Real estate sales 

-158 

26 

N.M. 

17 

54 

211% 

71% 

   Others 

-304 

18 

N.M. 

-288 

24 

N.M. 

85% 

Selling exp 

-312 

-421 

35% 

-1,141 

-1,274 

12% 

115% 

G&A 

-519 

-602 

16% 

-1,575 

-1,765 

12% 

114% 

    In which: Goodwill amortization 

-52 

-52 

0% 

-208 

-208 

0% 

100% 

Operating profit 

326 

1,387 

325% 

2,794 

3,727 

33% 

136% 

Financial income 

68 

215 

217% 

450 

1,497 

233% 

103% 

   Interest income 

26 

61 

136% 

179 

182 

1% 

84% 

   FX gain 

23 

35 

52% 

42 

104 

147% 

247% 

   Gain from securities investment 

16 

178% 

155 

134 

-14% 

134% 

   Others 

13 

103 

672% 

42 

1,078 

2482% 

98% 

Financial expense 

-415 

-377 

-9% 

-1,889 

-1,690 

-11% 

120% 

    Interest expense 

-326 

-257 

-21% 

-1,379 

-1,077 

-22% 

103% 

    FX loss 

-10 

-17 

72% 

-144 

-117 

-18% 

135% 

    Loss from securities investment 

-13 

-50 

295% 

-41 

-60 

45% 

N.M. 

    Others 

-66 

-53 

-20% 

-325 

-436 

34% 

160% 

Income from JVs 

13 

74 

479% 

61 

37 

-39% 

794% 

Other income 

17 

48 

184% 

-18 

47 

N.M. 

N.M. 

Profit before tax 

9 

1,346 

15173% 

1,397 

3,616 

159% 

129% 

NPAT before MI 

-80 

1,014 

N.M. 

864 

2,667 

209% 

127% 

Minorities interest 

60 

-447 

N.M. 

-534 

-1,043 

95% 

112% 

NPAT-MI, reported 

-21 

567 

N.M. 

330 

1,624 

392% 

138% 

NPAT-MI, core (*) 

-21 

562 

N.M. 

668 

1,045 

56% 

214% 

Source: GEX, Vietcap, (*) Adjusted for one-off items and goodwill amortization expenses 


VGC: Both IP and construction materials segment beat our 2024F PBT, upside potential for 2025F PBT 

2024: revenue of VND11.9tn (USD469mn, -10% YoY, 103% of full-year forecast), NPAT-MI of VND1,105bn (USD44mn, -9% YoY, 128% of 2024F).  

  • Revenue declined 10% YoY mainly due to 22% YoY fall in IP segment (estimated land sales of 130 ha, -24% YoY). However IP’s GPM improved signficiantly by 10% to 57% due to growing ASP and construction materials’ GPM rose by 120 bps to 15.3%, these made gross profit (GP) to be flat YoY. NPAT-MI declined 9% YoY due to higher minorities interests.  

  • 2024 NPAT-MI beats our forecast due to higher-than-expected GPM in (1) IP (driven by outperformed ASP in Phu Ha IP) and (2) construction material (building glasses turned to profit from losses in 2023). These outweigh lower-than-expected IP land sales of 130 ha (vs forecast of 139 ha, mainly due to delays in tenant rental decisions following uncertainties regarding Trump administration’s tariff policies.  

Q4 2024: revenue of VND3.7tn (USD147mn, +23% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND536bn (USD21mn, +28x YoY from low base). Revenue growth was driven by (1) 48% YoY IP sales growth (estimated land sales of 45 ha, 3x YoY), and (2) 14% YoY growth in construction materials.  Blended GPM significantly improved by 14.8% to 33.5%, driven by better IP and construction material (building glasses turnaround from losses in Q4 2023). 

*We see upside potential to our 2025 PBT forecast (VND2.0tn, USD79mn, +24% YoY) due to strong performance of construction material segment, pending a fuller review. VGC also guides 2025 PBT of VND1.7tn (+57% YoY vs 2024G).  

*We currently estimate VGC’s fair value of VND51,400/share. 

VGC’s 2024 results  

VND bn 

Q4 2023 

 Q4 2024 

YoY 

2023 

2024 

YoY 

% of Vietcap 2024F 

Revenue 

3,020 

3,728 

23% 

13,194 

11,913 

-10% 

103% 

IP land sales & services 

858 

1,274 

48% 

5,130 

4,009 

-22% 

107% 

Residential estate 

57 

84 

47% 

100 

190 

90% 

63% 

Construction materials 

2,075 

2,365 

14% 

7,916 

7,702 

-3% 

103% 

Others 

30 

-82% 

48 

11 

-76% 

N.M. 

Gross profit 

565 

1,249 

121% 

3,519 

3,514 

0% 

126% 

IP land sales & services 

382 

807 

111% 

2,368 

2,277 

-4% 

115% 

Residential estate 

15 

26 

69% 

28 

54 

93% 

71% 

Construction materials 

145 

414 

185% 

1,111 

1,176 

6% 

160% 

Others 

22 

-88% 

12 

-32% 

N.M. 

Selling exp 

-210 

-293 

40% 

-812 

-858 

6% 

120% 

G&A 

-267 

-219 

-18% 

-756 

-745 

-2% 

108% 

Operating profit 

88 

738 

737% 

1,951 

1,912 

-2% 

138% 

Financial income 

6 

24 

339% 

61 

76 

25% 

137% 

Financial expense 

-89 

-79 

-11% 

-381 

-310 

-19% 

102% 

    Interest expense 

-115 

-68 

-41% 

-348 

-269 

-23% 

94% 

Income from JVs 

-16 

N.M. 

-36 

-75 

N.M 

N.M. 

Other income 

25 

45 

80% 

33 

320% 

N.M. 

Profit before tax 

13 

728 

5338% 

1,602 

1,636 

2% 

144% 

NPAT before MI 

-49 

548 

N.M. 

1,162 

1,190 

2% 

131% 

Minorities interest 

67 

-12 

N.M. 

56 

-85 

N.M. 

185% 

NPAT-MI, reported 

18 

536 

2827% 

1,218 

1,105 

-9% 

128% 

Source: VGC, Vietcap. 

  

GEE: Substantial sales and margin expansions in electrical equipment, upside evident for 2025F NPAT 

  • 2024: revenue of VND21.1tn (USD831mn, +27% YoY, 109% of full-year forecast) and NPAT-MI of VND1,588bn (USD63mn, 2.1x YoY, 150% of full-year forecast).  

  • Revenue growth was boosted by 31% YoY sales expansion from electrical equipments, mainly driven by CAV while power revenue fell by ~50% YoY following solar farm divestment in Q2 2024.  

  • NPAT-MI doubled YoY and beats our forecasts mainly due to stronger-than-expected electrical equipment sales and GPM expansions, driving blended GPM up 2.3-ppts YoY to 14.5% (vs our projected 11.6%). This is driven by strong CAV performance and improvement across other subsidiaries.  

  • Q4 2024: revenue of VND6.5tn (USD255mn, +32% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND586bn (USD23mn, 5.4x YoY). Substantial earnings growth was driven by (1) strong electrical equipment, and (2) 5x YoY financial income due to no divestment loss (vs VND94bn loss in Q4 2023).  

  • Song Bung 4A hydropower divestment has not been completed as waiting approval from government authorities. We expect this to finish in 2025 (vs Q4 2024 previously) with estimated PBT gain of ~VND150bn. 

  • We see upside potential for our 2025F NPAT (VND796bn, USD31mn, -25% YoY) due to (1) stronger-than-expected electrical equipment performance, and (2) Song Bung 4A divestment gain recognition, pending a fuller review.  

 

 

 

Powered by Froala Editor