- We cut our target price (TP) for GEX by 3% and downgrade our rating from OUTPERFORM to MARKET PERFORM. Our lower TP is due to a 1% cut in our aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI forecast (respective changes of -27%/+3%/+6%/-8%/+24% for 2024/25/26/27/28F). We have revised GEX's valuation downward primarily due to reduced expectations for its industrial park (IP) leasing business, outweighing increased valuation for its electrical equipment segment. Additionally, our shift in valuation method for TITAN Corp (ready-built-factory business) from book value to DCF also contributed to the adjustment.

- Our lower 2024-2028F NPAT-MI projection for GEX is primarily due to a 10% lower aggregate NPAT-MI forecast for VGC, averaging 162 ha p.a. leasing area compared to the previously assumed 180 ha, following Q4 2023 results and recent guidance from GEX.

- We project 2024F reported NPAT-MI of VND1.0tn (+203% YoY) as we expect (1) sales of electrical equipment and construction materials to recover, and (2) a pretax profit of VND950bn from GEX’s divestment of its renewable power portfolio (page 7). We project a 5% YoY decline in GEX's recurring NPAT-MI for 2024, driven by the removal of earnings from the power portfolio, despite a recovery in earnings from the electrical equipment segment.

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