- We cut our target price (TP) for GEX by 4% but upgrade our rating from OUTPERFORM to BUY as its share price has dropped 13% over the past three months. We cut our TP due to a higher conglomerate discount of 30% (vs 15% previously, details on page 7), which outweighs our 9% higher aggregate 2025-2029F NPAT-MI projections for GEX (respective changes of +10%/+7%/+7%+10%/+11%).

- Our higher aggregate five-year NPAT-MI is mainly driven by our 18% higher earnings projection for GEE (due to higher revenue growth as well as higher GPM projections following 9M results) and our 1% higher aggregate NPAT-MI projection for VGC.

- We forecast 2025F reported NPAT-MI to drop by 37% YoY to VND735bn, as 2024F divestment gains of VND1.1tn will not recur. However, we forecast core NPAT to double to VND1.1tn due to (1) 14% YoY growth in electrical equipment revenue despite a high base in 2024, (2) 26% YoY growth in IP revenue (contribution from Thuan Thanh), and (3) lower interest expenses.

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