- GAS announced Q3 2022 results with revenue of VND24.3tn (USD993mn; +31.2% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND3.0tn (USD124mn; +25.3% YoY) that were bolstered by higher output gas prices and a recovery of gas demand. The average fuel oil (FO) price — the benchmark for Vietnam’s gas price — rose 9.9% YoY in Q3 2022. In addition, the average LPG price increased 12.0% YoY in Q3 2022. We estimate that GAS’s Q3 2022 sales volume increased 11.8% YoY thanks to a 31.7% YoY demand recovery from industrial clients, while demand from power plants and fertilizers was flat.

- 9M 2022 revenue rose 33.8% YoY and NPAT-MI surged 72.1% YoY, which we attribute to surging output gas prices and higher financial income, which far outweighed increased financial expenses.

- 9M 2022 revenue and NPAT completed 85.6% and 85.2% of our respective full-year forecasts. We currently assume an average Brent oil price of USD95/bbl for 2022, which implies a lower oil price in Q4 2022 compared to Q3 2022. On the other hand, we estimate volume growth of 35% QoQ in Q4 2022. Although 9M 2022 gas volume completed only 68.8% of our full-year forecast, we see insignificant change to our volume assumption. As such, we foresee slight upside to our current NPAT forecasts due to higher-than-expected interest income, pending a fuller review.

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