- We lower our target price (TP) for GAS by 5.0% to VND81,500/share due to a 5.9% reduction in our aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI forecast (respective changes of -6.0%/-6.3%/+1.1%/-2.9%/-12% for 2024/25/26/27/28F) and maintain our OUTPERFORM rating.  Our forecast cuts are driven by our (1) 8.2% lower aggregate industrial sales volume projection and (2) lower 2024/25F LNG tariff, which outweigh our higher 2025 FO/gas price assumptions. Our lower earnings forecast outweighs the positive impact of rolling our TP to end-2025.

- Our lower aggregate 2024-2028F sales volume to industrial customers is due to (1) weaker-than-expected 9M 2024 volume and (2) limited projected growth in 2025, per communication with PV Gas Distribution (HSX: PGD). 

- We project 2025 NPAT-MI to increase 10.1% YoY, fueled by (1) higher gas sales volumes, primarily from LNG, and (2) a reduced loss from Thi Vai LNG (VND88bn vs VND622bn in 2024). These factors outweigh the negative impact of a forecasted 7.5% YoY decline in FO prices.

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