- We cut our target price (TP) for GAS by 6.3% to VND74,200/share but maintain our BUY rating due to a (1) 3.7% cut in our aggregate 2025-2029F NPAT-MI forecast and (2) lower target P/E multiple of 15.3x (vs 15.5x previously); these factors together outweigh (3) the positive impacts from rolling our TP horizon forward to mid-2026 (page 4).

- Our lower aggregate 2025-29F earnings projection (respective changes of -9.9%/-11.1%/-4.6%/+0.7%/+0.3% for 2025/26/27/28/29F) is mainly driven by our (1) 4% lower fuel oil (FO) price forecast and (2) 2% lower average natural gas & LNG sales volume, outweighing (3) our lower interest expense projections; especially in 2028F-29F due to our projected lower debt.

- We project GAS’s 2025F reported NPAT-MI to fall 3% YoY, driven by 9% YoY lower gross profit from (1) natural gas (YoY lower FO price outweighs higher sales volume) and (2) LPG (YoY lower LPG price). These factors together outweigh (3) Thi Vai’s 3.9x YoY NPAT growth, and (4) YoY lower SG&A expense (due to lower provision expenses).

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