GAS - 2024 core NPAT-MI meets projections as strong LPG and LNG profit offset weak sales volume to gas-fired plants – Earnings Flash
  • 2025-02-03T00:00:00
  • Company Research

* 2024: Revenue was VND103.6tn (USD4.1bn, +15% YoY, 103% of our full-year forecast), with reported NPAT-MI of VND10.4tn (USD409mn, -10% YoY, 93% of our full-year forecast), and core NPAT-MI of VND11.9tn (USD469mn, +2% YoY, 98% of our full-year forecast).

- Revenue expanded 15% YoY due to 43% YoY higher LPG sales (the LPG price was +6% YoY, and estimated LPG sales volume was +27% YoY), outweighing 11% YoY lower natural gas & LNG sales (estimated 11% YoY dry gas sales volume decline).

- Reported NPAT-MI decreased 10% YoY and slightly trailed our forecast due to (1) a 40% YoY increase in SG&A expenses due to VND1,905bn of provision expenses (related to the POW and Phu My BOT plants), and (2) lower-than-expected natural gas sales volume (due to weaker-than-expected sales to gas-fired power plants in Q4). Notably, natural gas and LNG GPM improved by 3.0 ppts to 26.3% due to (1) a 3% YoY higher FO price and (2) profit from LNG sales, per GAS.

- Core NPAT-MI grew 2% YoY with a 98% completion rate, in line with our projection.

-The average FO price – the benchmark for Vietnam’s gas price — rose 3% YoY to USD462/tonne in 2024 while the Brent oil price decreased 3% YoY to USD80/bbl, aligning with our forecasts.

* Q4 2024: Revenue was VND25tn (USD984mn, +11% YoY), with reported NPAT-MI of VND1,988bn (USD78mn, -27% YoY). 

Revenue increased 11% YoY due to estimated (1) 33%/3% YoY higher LPG sales volume/ASP, which outweigh (2) a 13% YoY decline in natural gas sales volume, and (3) a 4% YoY lower FO price.

- Reported NPAT-MI fell 27% YoY mainly due to 60% YoY higher SG&A expenses following VND667bn of provision expenses booked while gross profit was flat YoY.

* We see insignificant changes to our 2025F NPAT-MI forecast (VND11.2tn, USD441mn, +8% YoY) as we expect strong mobilization for gas-fired plants and potentially higher LNG sales volume (per GAS) to outweigh the potential higher provision expenses, pending a fuller review. We currently have an OUTPERFORM rating for GAS with a target price of VND77,300/share.

GAS’s 2024 results

VND bn

Q4 2023

Q4 2024

YoY

2023

2024

YoY

% of Vietcap’s 2024F

Average Brent oil price (USD/bbl)

83

74

-11%

82

80

-3%

100%

Average fuel oil price (USD/tonne)

461

444

-4%

451

462

3%

99%

Gas sales volume* (million cbm)

1,673

1,457

-13%

7,200

6,400

-11%

93%

Revenue

22,571

24,945

11%

89,954

103,564

15%

103%

COGS

-18,512

-20,901

13%

-85,910

-88,114

3%

107%

Gross profit

4,058

4,044

0%

16,925

17,654

4%

97%

SG&A expenses

-1,106

-1,767

60%

-4,019

-5,612

40%

103%

Operating profit (EBIT)

2,953

2,278

-23%

12,906

12,042

-7%

94%

Financial income

544

420

-23%

2,273

1,737

-24%

92%

Financial expense

-138

-141

2%

-587

-660

13%

93%

Profit before tax (PBT)

3,365

2,558

-24%

14,640

13,172

-10%

94%

Income tax expense

-589

-506

-14%

-2,846

-2,582

-9%

92%

NPAT before MI

2,776

2,052

-26%

11,793

10,590

-10%

95%

Minority interest (MI)

-53

-65

22%

-187

-192

3%

N.M.

Reported NPAT-MI

2,723

1,988

-27%

11,606

10,398

-10%

93%

Core NPAT-MI**

2,644

2,532

-4%

11,676

11,907

2%

98%

Source: GAS, Vietcap (*Vietcap estimates; **Excluding provision expenses and net other income)

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