- 2025-02-03T00:00:00
- Company Research
* 2024: Revenue was VND103.6tn (USD4.1bn, +15% YoY, 103% of our full-year forecast), with reported NPAT-MI of VND10.4tn (USD409mn, -10% YoY, 93% of our full-year forecast), and core NPAT-MI of VND11.9tn (USD469mn, +2% YoY, 98% of our full-year forecast).
- Revenue expanded 15% YoY due to 43% YoY higher LPG sales (the LPG price was +6% YoY, and estimated LPG sales volume was +27% YoY), outweighing 11% YoY lower natural gas & LNG sales (estimated 11% YoY dry gas sales volume decline).
- Reported NPAT-MI decreased 10% YoY and slightly trailed our forecast due to (1) a 40% YoY increase in SG&A expenses due to VND1,905bn of provision expenses (related to the POW and Phu My BOT plants), and (2) lower-than-expected natural gas sales volume (due to weaker-than-expected sales to gas-fired power plants in Q4). Notably, natural gas and LNG GPM improved by 3.0 ppts to 26.3% due to (1) a 3% YoY higher FO price and (2) profit from LNG sales, per GAS.
- Core NPAT-MI grew 2% YoY with a 98% completion rate, in line with our projection.
-The average FO price – the benchmark for Vietnam’s gas price — rose 3% YoY to USD462/tonne in 2024 while the Brent oil price decreased 3% YoY to USD80/bbl, aligning with our forecasts.
* Q4 2024: Revenue was VND25tn (USD984mn, +11% YoY), with reported NPAT-MI of VND1,988bn (USD78mn, -27% YoY).
- Revenue increased 11% YoY due to estimated (1) 33%/3% YoY higher LPG sales volume/ASP, which outweigh (2) a 13% YoY decline in natural gas sales volume, and (3) a 4% YoY lower FO price.
- Reported NPAT-MI fell 27% YoY mainly due to 60% YoY higher SG&A expenses following VND667bn of provision expenses booked while gross profit was flat YoY.
* We see insignificant changes to our 2025F NPAT-MI forecast (VND11.2tn, USD441mn, +8% YoY) as we expect strong mobilization for gas-fired plants and potentially higher LNG sales volume (per GAS) to outweigh the potential higher provision expenses, pending a fuller review. We currently have an OUTPERFORM rating for GAS with a target price of VND77,300/share.
GAS’s 2024 results
VND bn | Q4 2023 | Q4 2024 | YoY | 2023 | 2024 | YoY | % of Vietcap’s 2024F |
Average Brent oil price (USD/bbl) | 83 | 74 | -11% | 82 | 80 | -3% | 100% |
Average fuel oil price (USD/tonne) | 461 | 444 | -4% | 451 | 462 | 3% | 99% |
Gas sales volume* (million cbm) | 1,673 | 1,457 | -13% | 7,200 | 6,400 | -11% | 93% |
Revenue | 22,571 | 24,945 | 11% | 89,954 | 103,564 | 15% | 103% |
COGS | -18,512 | -20,901 | 13% | -85,910 | -88,114 | 3% | 107% |
Gross profit | 4,058 | 4,044 | 0% | 16,925 | 17,654 | 4% | 97% |
SG&A expenses | -1,106 | -1,767 | 60% | -4,019 | -5,612 | 40% | 103% |
Operating profit (EBIT) | 2,953 | 2,278 | -23% | 12,906 | 12,042 | -7% | 94% |
Financial income | 544 | 420 | -23% | 2,273 | 1,737 | -24% | 92% |
Financial expense | -138 | -141 | 2% | -587 | -660 | 13% | 93% |
Profit before tax (PBT) | 3,365 | 2,558 | -24% | 14,640 | 13,172 | -10% | 94% |
Income tax expense | -589 | -506 | -14% | -2,846 | -2,582 | -9% | 92% |
NPAT before MI | 2,776 | 2,052 | -26% | 11,793 | 10,590 | -10% | 95% |
Minority interest (MI) | -53 | -65 | 22% | -187 | -192 | 3% | N.M. |
Reported NPAT-MI | 2,723 | 1,988 | -27% | 11,606 | 10,398 | -10% | 93% |
Core NPAT-MI** | 2,644 | 2,532 | -4% | 11,676 | 11,907 | 2% | 98% |
Source: GAS, Vietcap (*Vietcap estimates; **Excluding provision expenses and net other income)
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