We attended FPT's online analyst meeting on February 12, which discussed the company’s 2024 results and 2025 outlook. Overall, management is confident in delivering robust results across segments in 2025, which are in line with our expectations.

1. 2025 guidance

FPT guides for 2025 PBT YoY growth of 21% vs our forecast of 27% YoY growth. We note that FPT has a track record of achieving/slightly beating its profit guidance as in 2024, FPT's PBT completed 102% of its 2024 target. 

FPT’s 2025 revenue and PBT targets by segment

Source: FPT, Vietcap

2. Technology  

Management expects all global IT markets to grow strongly, with over 20% YoY expansion in 2025. The company forecasts 20% YoY revenue growth in the US, 27%-30% in Japan, and 25%-30% in APAC and the EU, underscoring strong demand for IT services. FPT maintains a 15% cost advantage over global peers, reinforcing its competitiveness in the digital transformation (DX) space. AI-related services continue to gain traction, already contributing 5%-6% of global IT revenue.

The AI factory business outlook remains promising, particularly with the rise of cost-efficient AI models like DeepSeek. While FPT’s AI factory in Japan faces a slight delay, now expected to commence operations in late March 2025, the Vietnam AI factory remains on track for Q1 2025 revenue generation. Additionally, FPT sees no slowdown in Nvidia H100 GPU demand from DeepSeek’s emergence. Instead, it anticipates even greater opportunities for AI-powered IT services. In its base case, FPT targets USD40mn in revenue for its AI factory/GPU-as-a-Service business in 2025 — 19% lower than our current forecast of USD49mn. However, with AI adoption accelerating, we believe the upside potential remains, particularly if enterprise demand for GPU-intensive workloads continues to rise.

3. Telecom 

FPT to expand hyperscale data centers for AI & cloud growth: The company is in discussions with major hyperscalers and cloud providers to develop additional hyperscale data centers in 2025, positioning itself as a key infrastructure enabler in Vietnam’s digital economy. Further details have yet to be disclosed.

4. Education 

Management anticipates a recovery in enrollment in 2025. This will be led by (1) aggressive marketing campaigns to attract students, (2) curriculum expansion into Government-prioritized fields such as semiconductors and AI, tapping into Vietnam’s push for high-tech workforce development, and (3) scaling its K-12 education network across multiple provinces and cities, ensuring long-term growth in the private education sector.

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