- 2025-04-15T00:00:00
- Company Research
1. 2025 guidance:
* The AGM approved the 2025 guidance including revenue of VND75.4tn (USD3bn; +20% YoY; 98% of our full-year forecast) and PBT of VND13.4tn (USD536mn; +21% YoY; 98% of our full-year forecast).
* Shareholders also authorized the Board of Directors to revise guidance during the year, if necessary, amid global economic uncertainties.
* Historically, FPT has slightly exceeded its guidance, with 2018–2024 actual revenue/PBT averaging 101%/102% of the respective targets.
Figure 1: 2025 guidance
VND bn | 2025G | YoY | 2025G/Vietcap’s 2025F |
Revenue | 75,400 | +20% | 98% |
Technology | 49,260 | +26% | 98% |
Telecom | 19,900 | +13% | 99% |
Education, investments & others | 6,240 | +2% | 96% |
PBT | 13,395 | +21% | 98% |
Technology | 6,655 | +27% | 94% |
Telecom | 4,200 | +17% | 99% |
Education, investments & others | 2,540 | +13% | 106% |
Source: FPT, Vietcap
2. Management commentary by segment:
* Technology:
- Potential impacts of reciprocal tariffs on Global IT business:
+ Risks: Management noted that while the long-term outlook for global IT spending remains positive, near-term uncertainties could lead to temporary delays in IT spending. In the event of a macroeconomic slowdown, companies may defer IT investments by one to two quarters while awaiting clearer signals.
+ Opportunities: If reciprocal tariffs escalate into a US-China trade war, FPT may see emerging opportunities (e.g., demand from clients seeking to diversify away from existing IT service providers, including Chinese companies).
- AI Factories: FPT expects to begin recording revenue from its AI factories in Vietnam and Japan in Q2 2025. Clients are currently piloting the services.
- Middle East market: FPT has penetrated the Middle East market for around three years, leveraging relationships with regional royalty to acquire new clients. The company is discussing forming a joint venture to serve local digital transformation (DX) demand.
- AI-related services outlook: FPT projects strong AI adoption across both the public and private sectors, guiding for 30%–50% YoY growth p.a. in AI-related revenue over the next five years.
* Telecom:
- Potential impacts of Starlink’s satellite internet on broadband business: Management believes Starlink poses no material threat to its broadband business. FPT views satellite internet as complementary to existing internet services as Starlink’s satellite service primarily targets remote areas underserved by traditional internet infrastructure.
- Data center: FPT guides for launching its data center in District 9 (HCMC) by end-2025.
* Education:
- FPT sees long-term demand for AI talent and emphasizes its strength in integrating technology into education from grade 1 through university.
- To align with the Government’s provincial merger plan, FPT plans to roll out a mini-school model (i.e., a smaller-scale K-12 school compared to the existing uni-school model, also known as the educational complex) at the commune level.
3. 2025 capex plan:
* FPT targets a total capex of VND11tn (USD440mn; +69% YoY). The YoY jump is mainly due to investments in the FPT AI factoriex in Vietnam and Japan.
Figure 2: 2025 capex plan
VND bn | Capex | Details |
Technology | 6,000 | - To invest in FPT AI factories in Vietnam and Japan. - To expand office complexes in Hanoi, Da Nang, HCMC, and Quy Nhon, among others. |
Telecom | 2,500 | - To invest in main cable routes and submarine cables. |
Education, investments & others | 2,500 | - To expand university campuses in Hanoi, Da Nang, and HCMC. - To establish new educational facilities across various localities nationwide. |
Total | 11,000 |
|
Source: FPT, Vietcap
4. Dividend:
* FY2024 cash dividend: Shareholders approved a FY2024 cash dividend of VND2,000/share (1.7% yield), with VND1,000/share already paid in 2024 and the remaining VND1,000/share due in Q2 2025.
* Stock dividend: Shareholders approved the proposal of a stock dividend issuance at a 20:3 ratio (i.e., 20 existing shares receive 3 additional shares), targeted for execution by Q3 2025.
* FY2025 cash dividend: FPT expects to pay a FY2025 cash dividend of VND2,000/share (1.7% yield) based on the new share count post-stock dividend (equivalent to VND2,300/share or 2.0% yield on the current share count).
5. ESOP:
* The AGM proved FPT’s proposed ESOP for young senior managers for 2026-2030:
- Issuance rate: Tied to annual NPAT-MI growth (max: 0.175%) and annual total shareholders’ return (max: 0.075%), with an annual cap of 0.25% of total shares outstanding and a five-year cap of 1% of total shares outstanding.
- Issuance price: VND10,000/share.
- Lock-up period: Ten years.
Figure 3: ESOP for senior young managers for 2026-2030
ESOP scheme | Criterion | Issuance rate | Maximum issuance rate |
Tied to NPAT-MI growth | NPAT-MI growth ≥ 10% | 0.2% × 70% × (Actual NPAT-MI growth ÷ 20%) | 0.175% |
NPAT-MI growth < 10% | 0 |
| |
Tied to TSR* | TSR > 0% | 0.2% × 30% × (Actual TSR ÷ 10%) | 0.075% |
TSR < 0% | 0 |
|
Source: FPT, Vietcap. Note: *TSR = (year-end share price – beginning share price + cash dividend)/beginning share price.
6. Our view:
* While FPT has a strong track record of delivering results, we see potential downside risks to our 2025F forecasts due to weaker-than-expected preliminary 2M 2025 results, particularly in the technology segment, pending a more comprehensive review.
* We currently have a target price of VND155,400/share for FPT.
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