US/Israel and Iran’s conflict could last through H1 2027 or longer: On September 11, Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline (a key route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz; 4–5 mb/d, ~4-5% of global oil supply) following a drone attack launched from Iraq.  Repairs could take six weeks (until late October 2026), assuming no further damage, according to The Guardian and Reuters. In addition, White House advisers were reported on September 9 to have privately warned President Trump that the conflict could last through the remainder of his term. 

As of September 11, 2026, the YTD average Brent price was USD87.7/bbl, 5.7% higher than our previous 2026F base case forecast of USD83/bbl and 5.7% below our previous high case estimate of USD93/bbl.

Global oil inventories are now only ~130 million barrels above the recent trough of ~7.57 billion barrels recorded in May 2022 (Russia-Ukraine conflict peak). From end-February to end-August 2026, inventories declined at an average pace of 2.4 mb/d. Assuming this pace persists, we estimate it would take approximately 54 days from end-August — to around late October 2026 — for inventories to fall back to May 2022’s level.

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