- We cut our target price (TP) by 7.3% to VND36,800/share and downgrade our rating from BUY to OUTPERFORM. Our lower TP is due to an 8.6% cut in our aggregate 2025-2029F NPAT-MI forecast (respective changes of -38.7%/-19.8%/-2.6%/+2.0%/+5.9% for 2025/26/27/28/29F).

- The changes to our forecast are driven by our assumptions of 1) 0.8% lower urea ASP and 2) 3.6% higher input gas prices on average for 2025-29 (due to higher contributions from expensive gas fields), in addition to 3) slower NPK sales volume expansion in 2025/26F.

- We forecast NPAT-MI to rise 37% YoY in 2025 to VND826bn, primarily driven by (1) tax saved from 5% VAT implementation, (2) declining gas prices; these together outweigh (3) YoY lower urea/NPK ASPs, and (4) lower urea sales volume.

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