- 2025-02-03T00:00:00
- Company Research
- DHC released its 2024 results, with revenue up 10% YoY, while NPAT-MI declined by 22% YoY. These results fell short of our expectations, fulfilling 98% and 91% of our full-year forecasts, respectively, mainly due to weaker-than-expected price spread improvement in Q4 2024.
- Q4 2024’s core GPM (excluding steel trading) softened to 11.2%, down from the 12.8% average in 9M 2024 (vs 17.5% in 2019-2023) and below our expectation for flat GPM. This was driven by a decline in paper prices amid stable OCC prices, compressing the price spread.
- We estimate that paper prices fell to VND8,900/kg in Q4 2024 (-7% QoQ; +5% YoY). However, prices have rebounded in early 2025, reaching VND9,100/kg by the end of January.
- In line with paper price trends, OCC prices have remained flat or edged up slightly by 3% per market. According to management, DHC began restocking low-cost OCC again in Q4 2024, which is expected to be utilized in Q1 2025.
- Looking ahead, we expect earnings to improve, supported by a gradual price spread expansion and higher utilization at carton box factories.
DHC’s 2024 results
VND bn | Q4 2023 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | QoQ | YoY | 2023 | 2024 | YoY | 2024A/2024F | 2024F |
Revenue | 816 | 896 | 873 | -3% | 7% | 3,259 | 3,596 | 10% | 98% | 3,687 |
Gross profit | 112 | 114 | 98 | -14% | -13% | 504 | 426 | -15% | 91% | 468 |
Operating profit | 84 | 76 | 59 | -23% | -31% | 359 | 274 | -24% | 87% | 313 |
PBT | 87 | 90 | 56 | -37% | -36% | 358 | 279 | -22% | 92% | 303 |
NPAT-MI | 75 | 77 | 49 | -36% | -35% | 309 | 242 | -22% | 91% | 266 |
GPM | 13.8% | 12.7% | 11.2% |
|
| 15.5% | 11.8% |
|
| 12.7% |
SG&A/revenue | -3.4% | -4.2% | -4.5% |
|
| -4.3% | -4.2% |
|
| -4.2% |
OPM | 10.3% | 8.5% | 6.7% |
|
| 11.0% | 7.6% |
|
| 8.5% |
NPM | 9.2% | 8.6% | 5.6% |
|
| 9.5% | 6.7% |
|
| 7.2% |
Source: DHC, Vietcap forecasts
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