• Q1 2024: Revenue was VND3.4tn (34mn, +24% YoY, 23% of our full-year forecast), NPAT-MI was VND411bn (USD16mn, +19% YoY), reaching 26% of our full-year forecastand and 28% of our full-year forecast excluding the potential benefit from the VAT Law change in late 2024.   

• Urea sales volume was 247,000 tonnes (-6% YoY, 31% of our full-year forecast), NPK sales volume (excl. Korean-Vietnam Fertilizer sales) was 23 thousand tonnes (+4.2x YoY, 13% of our full-year forecast)). 

• Revenue expanded YoY due to (1) an 8x YoY NPK revenue surge,  outweighing (2) 3% YoY lower urea revenue. 

• NPK: Revenue surged 8x YoY to VND521bn, driven by a sales volume jump from DCM’s old NPK plants and contribution from KVF vs none in Q1 2024; gross profit jumped 4.2x YoY to VND75bn.  

• Urea: Revenue declined 3% YoY due to 6% YoY lower sales volume outweighing a 3% increase in ASP; gross profit increased 15% YoY to VND876bn. 

• Blended GPM ticked up 12 bps to 26.0%, while urea’s GPM rose 5.6 ppts, driven by (1) a 3% YoY increase in urea ASP as well as what we expect to be a higher NPK ASP, and (2) our estimated 2% YoY lower gas price (USD9.1/MMBTU, slightly higher than our projected USD9.0/MMBTU for 2025F). 

• NPAT-MI increased 19% YoY mainly due to revenue expansion of 24% YoY.   

• We see slight upside to our 2025F NPAT-MI forecast (VND1,585bn, USD62mn, +12% YoY) due to potentially lower-than-expected gas prices following a lower Brent oil prices outlook for 2025, pending a fuller review. We currently have an OUTPERFORM rating for DCM with a target price of VND35,800/share. 

DCM’s Q1 2025 results