DCM – 2024 NPAT within expectation; eyes on 2025F NPAT growth - Earnings Flash
  • 2025-02-03T00:00:00
  • Company Research

2024: Revenue was VND13.4tn (USD530mn, +7% YoY, 92% of our full-year forecast), with NPAT-MI of VND1,333bn (USD52mn, +20% YoY, 104% of our full-year forecast). 

  • Revenue expanded due to (1) strong NPK sales volume (+32% YoY) and ASP (+22% YoY), which outweighed YoY weaker urea sales volume (-7% YoY) and ASP (-2% YoY).
  • NPAT-MI growth was mainly due to (1) the plunge in depreciation expenses, and (2) a VND167bn revaluation gain from the KVF acquisition; these outweighed : (1) lower urea ASP and volume, (2) an estimated 6% YoY increase in the input gas price, (3) 33% YoY lower financial income, and (4) an 11% YoY increase in SG&A.

Q4 2024: Revenue was VND4,214bn (USD166mn, +20% YoY), with NPAT-MI of VND282bn (USD11mn, -43% YoY).  

  • Revenue expanded due to (1) 15%/21% YoY higher urea/NPK sales volume, and (2) an estimated NPK ASP increase of 18% YoY; these outweighed 11% YoY lower urea ASP.
  • NPAT-MI plunged 43% YoY due to (1) GPM contracting by 8.5 ppt to 16.1% (input gas costs surged YoY due to a full-year gas costs settlement booked in Q4 despite our estimate for YoY flat gas prices). We estimate the input gas cost in Q4 to be 19% higher than the 9M average while its volume is only 15% higher. (2) There was also a 71% YoY increase in selling expenses, driven by recognizing advertising and commission expenses for full-year operations.

We see insignificant changes to our 2025F NPAT-MI forecast (VND1,585bn, USD62mn, +19% YoY). See more in our DCM Update. We currently have an OUTPERFORM rating for DCM with a target price of VND35,800/share.

DCM’s Q4 and 2024 results 

VND bn

Q4 2023

Q4 2024

YoY

2023

2024

YoY

% of Vietcap’s 2024F

Average Brent oil price (USD/bbl)

                 83 

                 74 

-11%

82

80

-3%

100%

Average fuel oil price (USD/tonne)

              453 

             444 

-2%

448                                                              

462                       

3%

99%

Input gas price (USD/MMBTU), including VAT*

                9.2 

               9.2 

0%

9.1                                                                   

9.7                    

6%

100%

Middle east urea price (USD/tonne)

            384 

            360 

-6%

358                                                                

338                               

-6%

100%

Urea ASP (VND/kg)*

       10,188 

          9,421 

-11%

9,597                                                               

9,414                       

-2%

101%

Urea sales volume (thousand tonnes)

            195 

             223 

15%

866                                                                    

805                               

-7%

99%

Revenue

3,513

4,214

20%

12,602

13,456

7%

92%

COGS

-2,647

-3,534

34%

-10,620

-11,071

4%

90%

Depreciation expense

-59

-64

7%

-1,083

-248

-77%

91%

Gross profit

866

680

-22%

1,982

2,385

20%

105%

Sales & marketing exp

-217

-371

71%

-786

-1,013

29%

120%

General admin (GA) exp

-209

-90

-57%

-510

-430

-16%

78%

Operating profit (EBIT)

440

218

-50%

687

942

37%

107%

Financial income

106

119

13%

570

384

-33%

80%

Financial expenses

-10

-25

158%

-27

-77

180%

107%

Share profit/loss from associates

0

0

N.M

0

0

N.M

N.M

Net other income/loss

1

8

540%

22

199

785%

119%

Profit before tax (PBT)

537

320

-40%

1,251

1,449

16%

100%

NPAT-MI

493

282

-43%

1,107

1,333

20%

104%

Source: DCM, Vietcap (* Vietcap estimates)

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