- 2025-02-03T00:00:00
- Company Research
2024: Revenue was VND13.4tn (USD530mn, +7% YoY, 92% of our full-year forecast), with NPAT-MI of VND1,333bn (USD52mn, +20% YoY, 104% of our full-year forecast).
- Revenue expanded due to (1) strong NPK sales volume (+32% YoY) and ASP (+22% YoY), which outweighed YoY weaker urea sales volume (-7% YoY) and ASP (-2% YoY).
- NPAT-MI growth was mainly due to (1) the plunge in depreciation expenses, and (2) a VND167bn revaluation gain from the KVF acquisition; these outweighed : (1) lower urea ASP and volume, (2) an estimated 6% YoY increase in the input gas price, (3) 33% YoY lower financial income, and (4) an 11% YoY increase in SG&A.
Q4 2024: Revenue was VND4,214bn (USD166mn, +20% YoY), with NPAT-MI of VND282bn (USD11mn, -43% YoY).
- Revenue expanded due to (1) 15%/21% YoY higher urea/NPK sales volume, and (2) an estimated NPK ASP increase of 18% YoY; these outweighed 11% YoY lower urea ASP.
- NPAT-MI plunged 43% YoY due to (1) GPM contracting by 8.5 ppt to 16.1% (input gas costs surged YoY due to a full-year gas costs settlement booked in Q4 despite our estimate for YoY flat gas prices). We estimate the input gas cost in Q4 to be 19% higher than the 9M average while its volume is only 15% higher. (2) There was also a 71% YoY increase in selling expenses, driven by recognizing advertising and commission expenses for full-year operations.
We see insignificant changes to our 2025F NPAT-MI forecast (VND1,585bn, USD62mn, +19% YoY). See more in our DCM Update. We currently have an OUTPERFORM rating for DCM with a target price of VND35,800/share.
DCM’s Q4 and 2024 results
VND bn | Q4 2023 | Q4 2024 | YoY | 2023 | 2024 | YoY | % of Vietcap’s 2024F |
Average Brent oil price (USD/bbl) | 83 | 74 | -11% | 82 | 80 | -3% | 100% |
Average fuel oil price (USD/tonne) | 453 | 444 | -2% | 448 | 462 | 3% | 99% |
Input gas price (USD/MMBTU), including VAT* | 9.2 | 9.2 | 0% | 9.1 | 9.7 | 6% | 100% |
Middle east urea price (USD/tonne) | 384 | 360 | -6% | 358 | 338 | -6% | 100% |
Urea ASP (VND/kg)* | 10,188 | 9,421 | -11% | 9,597 | 9,414 | -2% | 101% |
Urea sales volume (thousand tonnes) | 195 | 223 | 15% | 866 | 805 | -7% | 99% |
Revenue | 3,513 | 4,214 | 20% | 12,602 | 13,456 | 7% | 92% |
COGS | -2,647 | -3,534 | 34% | -10,620 | -11,071 | 4% | 90% |
Depreciation expense | -59 | -64 | 7% | -1,083 | -248 | -77% | 91% |
Gross profit | 866 | 680 | -22% | 1,982 | 2,385 | 20% | 105% |
Sales & marketing exp | -217 | -371 | 71% | -786 | -1,013 | 29% | 120% |
General admin (GA) exp | -209 | -90 | -57% | -510 | -430 | -16% | 78% |
Operating profit (EBIT) | 440 | 218 | -50% | 687 | 942 | 37% | 107% |
Financial income | 106 | 119 | 13% | 570 | 384 | -33% | 80% |
Financial expenses | -10 | -25 | 158% | -27 | -77 | 180% | 107% |
Share profit/loss from associates | 0 | 0 | N.M | 0 | 0 | N.M | N.M |
Net other income/loss | 1 | 8 | 540% | 22 | 199 | 785% | 119% |
Profit before tax (PBT) | 537 | 320 | -40% | 1,251 | 1,449 | 16% | 100% |
NPAT-MI | 493 | 282 | -43% | 1,107 | 1,333 | 20% | 104% |
Source: DCM, Vietcap (* Vietcap estimates)
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