CTG - Rate cuts dents NII, but profit on track with forecast - Earnings Flash
  • 2021-10-27T00:00:00
  • Company Research

CTG released 9M 2021 results with TOI of VND39.3tn (USD1.7bn; +22.0% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND11.2tn (USD486mn; +34.2% YoY), achieving 76.2% and 71.1% of our FY2021 forecasts, respectively. The increase in the bottom line was mainly due to (1) a 24.1% YoY increase in NII, (2) 17.9% YoY increase in pure NFI and (3) 68.1% YoY increase in net other income, which were partly offset by (1) a 9.6% YoY increase in OPEX and (2) 22.2% YoY increase in provision expenses. We currently assume that CTG will start to book the upfront fee from its exclusive bancassurance deal with Manulife in Q4 2021. Excluding the upfront fee assumption, 9M 2021 NPAT-MI completes 75.2% of our full-year forecast. We will discuss further with the bank in order to have a broader view on (1) Q3 2021 restructured loans, (2) CTG’s assessment on its customers’ ability to pay back debts and (3) any potential NPL ratio formation in future quarters. At this point, we see no material change to our forecast for 2021F recurring income, pending a fuller review.

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