- We increase our target price (TP) for BWE by 6% to VND51,400/share and maintain our OUTPERFORM rating. Our higher TP is due to a roughly 20% higher valuation for BWE’s stake in associated companies and a 3% increase in BWE’s stand-alone valuation, following the positive impact of rolling our TP to end-2025, which outweighs a 7% decrease in our aggregate NPAT-MI forecast for 2024-2028F (respective changes of -6%/-8%/-6%/-6%/-7% for 2024/25/26/27/28F). Please see more details on page 11.

- Our lower aggregate NPAT forecast is due to (1) a 3% lower water tariff following management’s latest guidance, and 2) a six-month delay in the residential waste tariff hike of 20% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, which outweigh a 1% increase in 2024F volume.  

- We forecast a 45% YoY surge in NPAT-MI to VND1.0tn in 2025, driven by 10% YoY water volume growth, a 3% water tariff hike mid-year, the nine-month impact of 20% higher residential waste tariffs, and lower financial expenses. These factors more than offset the projected ~35% decrease in NPAT for the trading & other segment. We forecast volume growth to accelerate to 11% in 2026-27F to boost continued bottom-line growth.

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